Major need not fear any great leap forward from Dublin

THE SHORTAGE of "hard" news stories in papers during the summer doldrums is a function, according to my wife, not of the absence of news, but of the absence of journalists, away on their holidays. And so, by this convoluted logic, the arrival of up to a thousand hacks in Dublin this weekend should `herald a veritable news bonanza'.

Not so, I'm afraid Dublin's first summit is unlikely to be a very sexy affair. Strictly informal, issuing no written conclusions, and its main session all over in three hours flat, it is hardly surprising that many have doubts privately - the British publicly, of course - on the wisdom of even holding it.

The primary objective of the meeting is to keep up the momentum of the talks in the Inter Governmental Conference (IGC) on the reform of the EU treaty. In part, its calling also reflects the act that the heads of government enjoyed last year's first such informal at Formentor in Majorca and the opportunity it gave theme to get to know each other on a personal basis. In a Europe of 15, this is no small problem.

Most suspect that the real British objection to the timing of the meeting has to do with the opening of the Tory conference on, Monday and its Prime Minister, Mr Major's concern not to be embarrassed in front of that audience by pronouncements from Dublin suggesting that European integration has taken another giant step forward.

The truth is, he has little to fear. There will neither be a giant leap or any attempt to sell the meeting as such - at least if Iveagh House, sensitive to his plight, has anything to do with it.

Mr Major's Foreign Secretary, Mr Malcolm Rifkind, points out, however, with some justice that the work of the IGC has not reached the stage where heads of government can realistically give it their detailed attention.

That, however, is not the same as suggesting that the process has stalled and badly needs to be kick started. This view has acquired substantial currency in recent days, stimulated by remarks from the French Foreign Minister, Mr Herve de Charette grumblings from the Commission and recycled, largely, by journalists in national capitals.

But, talk to diplomats close to the IGC from most member states and they will tell you they are happy with both the approach taken by the Irish presidency and the work done so far. There is no way of avoiding the laborious and painstaking process of repeated refining of texts. It's what Ireland's chairman of the IGC working group, Mr Noel Dorr, calls the process of "successive approximations".

That process will continue until the second Dublin summit in December when the Irish presidency has committed itself to produce a full draft text of the treaty changes.

In truth, it will only really be at this stage that the politicians will have to become closely engaged with the detail process. Until then, and this will be the main function of Dublin II - their function is to watch over their representatives' work, ensuring that none of the viable options are left out off texts to be refined at the next stage.

What can they do on Saturday, then Irish sources say they have two main concerns which relate directly to the momentum of the process. First, there is a strong desire to reaffirm the timetable", agreed at Florence based on a draft treaty for Dublin II and a target for the subsequent Dutch presidency of wrapping the whole thing up by the Amsterdam summit in June.

Only last week, the Dutch Prime Minister, Mr Wim Kok, suggested it might not be possible to complete things in Amsterdam because of the British election and the difficulty involved in presenting a new Labour government with a series of hard decisions within weeks of election.

While acknowledging the problem, the Irish are determined, for the time being, to maintain the agreed timetable, because, they say, it concentrates minds and dictates a pace of work sufficient for the task.

Secondly, they see the meeting as providing an impulse, not so much to the IGC working group, but to concentrating minds of national governments about their own responsibilities to the process. There is a sense that, the time has come when prime ministers may have to bang heads together in cabinets around Europe to thrash out not just what they want out of the process - everyone should know that now - but what they can live with in the interests of a more efficient, expanded EU.

There is likely to be intense discussion at the separate foreign ministers lunch of the outcome of the Washington peace conference, and some of the row with the US over the anti Cuba Helms/ Burton legislation. And, although not planned yet, some discussion of the Middle East by the heads of government of the Middle East appears inevitable.

Mr Bruton is also likely to take the opportunity of the summit to have a brief bilateral meeting with Mr Major on Anglo Irish issues.