The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said today that Japan's economy would probably shrink or show zero growth in 2002 and that growth would remain slow in the following two years.
In an annual Economic Survey of Japan, the Paris-based thinktank forecast that Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by 0.7 per cent in 2002, then grow by 0.8 per cent in 2003 and 0.9 per cent in 2004.
Those forecasts do not take into account the latest official Japanese data, however. Mr Yutaka Imai, an economist at the OECD, told a briefing in Tokyo that upward revisions in recent government figures suggested zero growth rather than a contraction for 2002.
Japan's economy grew a real 0.7 per cent in July-Septemberfrom the previous quarter, or an annualised 3.0 per cent,according to government data. It also revised April-June GDP up to a 1.0 per cent gain from a rise of 0.6 per cent.
The Japanese authorities are cautious about the outlook andEconomics, and Financial Services Minister Mr Heizo Takenaka has said that uncertainties were growing.
The OECD echoed such concerns. "Risks are skewed to the downside," it said, citing increased uncertainty about the world economy, low share prices and the stronger yen, which could undermine business confidence.