It may be harder for Yeltsin than it looks

RUSSIANS have more to worry about than Mad Cow Disease. This week the queue outside McDonald's stretched almost the full 200 metres to the entrance to Pushkinskaya metro station in the clear sunshine of one of the earliest Russian springs on record.

At the station, Leonid and Tatyana, a couple in their 20s, stood clipboards in hand, trying to raise signatures for a presidential candidate who is universally admired in the West but whose popularity in Russia has diminished almost to the point of non existence.

Behind them was propped a large cardboard placard bearing the familiar face of Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev, the last president of the USSR, bearing a message which said that 1.5 million signatures had already been garnered from people all over Russia who wanted the country to have what it deserved: "An Honest President."

Some passers by snarled abuse, others laughed at the idea that anyone would support Mr Gorbachev who, as one elderly man put it, had "ruined the country".

But Tatyana and Leonid stood firm. "He brought us glasnost. I don't think there would be any elections only for him." Tatyana pointed to a series of graphs propped against the station wall. One showed a rise in alcoholism since Mr Gorbachev left power, another showed a rise in infinite mortality. This is what happened after they forced him out," she said.

The media were in President Boris Yeltsin's hands and full of lies, according to Leonid. He and Tatyana had been collecting signatures every day for six weeks now and had received support from over 4,000 people. "There will be a big surprise in the election," he said. "Gorbachev is going to win."

The candidate himself is saying something similar, but few Russians believe him. The newspapers have been touting the idea that he will withdraw from the race in favour of the leading pro democracy candidate, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, but Mr Gorbachev will have none of it.

In a statement issued to the Russian news agency, Interfax he expressed admiration for Mr Yavlinsky, for the world renowned eye surgeon, Mr Sviatoslav Fyodorov, and, strangely, for the right wing nationalist, Gen Alexander Lebed. All of them are in the presidential race, but Mr Gorbachev said he would not withdraw his own candidature.

Mr Yeltsin's backers have been spreading rumours that Mr Yavlinsky will also pull, out of the elections but this candidate, who has dropped almost completely out of the public eye, made a rare appearance to deny he was withdrawing.

The latest opinion poll shows the Communist leader, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, on 25 per cent, one point up on his February figure, with Mr Yeltsin on 15 per cent, (up four), Mr Yavlinsky on 11 per cent (up two), the extreme rightwinger Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky on 9 per cent (down three), Gen Lebed at 8 per cent (no change), Mr Fyodorov at 7 per cent (no change), and Mr Gorbachev on 1 per cent (up 0.4).

The contest increasingly looks like developing into a straight fight between the authoritarian Mr Yeltsin and the nationalistic Mr Zyuganov or, as one commentator has put it, between one candidate who is "pretending to be a democrat" and another who is "pretending to be a communist".

Personal jealousies have split the true democrats into several antipathetic groups. There have been rumours of an alliance between Mr Yavlinsky, Mr Fyodorov and, again strangely, Gen Lebed. Mr Fyodorov and Gen Lebed have welcomed the idea of a "third force", but Mr Yavlinsky's reaction has been cool.

The fissures of division have also begun to appear in the Communist ranks following a newspaper report that Mr Zyuganov voted for a motion to remove his party colleague, Mr Gennady Seleznyov, as speaker of the State Duma. Mr Zyuganov says now that he was absent for the vote and that another deputy pushed his "yes" button on the electronic voting system.

There are, however, important differences between the two men, with Mr Seleznyov favouring the transfer of major powers from the presidency to the parliament. These cracks in the monolith, and hostile reaction to a Communist a initiated Duma vote declaring the dissolution of the USSR invalid, have, for the moment at least, handed the initiative to Mr Yeltsin.

Undeterred, Mr Zyuganov, canvassing in the Siberian city of Barnaul, has declared that he will win the presidency in the first round of voting on June 16th. But this claim seems just as unlikely as Leonid's prediction of a victory for Mr Gorbachev. It seems likely that no candidate will win outright in the first round and that the election will go to a run off between the two leading contenders.

As the campaign gathers momentum the major newspapers are beginning to paint a bleak picture of life in Russia following a Communist victory. In the trade union daily Trud, Mr Anatoly Chubais, a former deputy prime minister under Mr Yeltsin, wrote that the Communists' promise to freeze food prices would lead once again to empty shops, long queues and government subsidies to food producers which would bankrupt the country.

Mr Yeltsin, for his part, is hoping to make a major impact on the electorate by announcing a "Peace Plan" at the weekend to end the war which still rages in Chechnya.

The Yeltsin camp is confident that the country's mood is swinging its way but a unique poll seems to indicate that they will have a difficult struggle. The Russian Central Institute of Public Opinion asked 1,600 people whom they would least like to win the election.

The clear Wiitner, or more correctly the clear loser, was Mr Zhirinovsky with 45.8 per cent, but Mr Yeltsin was next on 38.5 per cent. Voters showed far less antipathy to Mr Zyuganov than to most other candidates. It may be harder for Mr Yeltsin, therefore, than it appears. But amid rumours that vote rigging was rife in the Duma elections last December, the business newspaper Kommersant gave its forecast as follows: Zyuganov will win but Yeltsin will be elected".