Green Party performance/analysis:It looks like being a disappointing election for the Green Party, writes Liam Reid.
At the outset of the general election, the Green Party was hopeful of becoming a double-figure party in the Dáil. As of last night however, instead of the predicted Green tide, three of its six TDs were caught in desperate battles to retain their seats.
It is looking like a poor election for the Greens, although there is still a chance that it could be involved in negotiations on the formation of the next government.
Despite having increased its vote above its 2002 showing of 3.85 per cent, there were poor showings for Deirdre de Búrca in Wicklow and Galway's outgoing mayor Niall Ó Bhrollcháin, who was nowhere near being in the running for a seat. Mary White last night had just an outside chance of taking the fifth seat in Carlow-Kilkenny.
Of its sitting TDs, leader Trevor Sargent was elected yesterday evening in North Dublin, while Eamon Ryan's seat is Dublin South was also seen as safe. Paul Gogarty retained his seat following transfers from independents in Dublin Mid West.
However Ciarán Cuffe was in serious trouble in Dún Laoghaire, having polled behind Richard Boyd Barrett of the People Before Profit Alliance and was therefore uncertain of taking the last seat.
Dan Boyle was in a similar position in Cork South Central, after he polled less than Labour candidate Kieran Lynch. However, John Gormey won his battle with Michael McDowell to take the last seat in Dublin South East.
Coalition possibilities aside, the fundamental question facing the party in the long term is how did it go so wrong. Was it a simple case of falling victim to a national trend of smaller parties and independents being squeezed by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?
Or could it be down to more fundamental problems to do with the party, its leadership and its inability to appeal beyond a niche section of the electorate?
Senior party figures were adamant that the former was the principal reason behind its poor showing, although they did acknowledge that it had failed in many areas to counteract what they said was negative stereotyping of the party as being anti-development.
They also point to the financial resources of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, combined with their large constituency organisations.
"I see this as a trend which affected all of the smaller parties," Dan Boyle, who was fighting to hold his seat Cork South Central, said yesterday. "It also became a one-dimensional debate between the two main parties."
The failure of Trevor Sargent to register with the wider electorate as a national political leader did not help the party in terms of gaining a foothold in the national debate. It also failed to capitalise on the environmental issue, so dominant in national and international debate.
Of much more immediacy for the party, however, is the question of coalition, which is likely to arise only if the party retains at least four seats and Fianna Fáil takes fewer than 80.
Paul Gogarty has said he is "willing to explore" this but says the Greens would need to secure significant policy changes on its core issues. With six seats or fewer, the party is not going to be in the strongest negotiation position to ensure this can become a reality.