FF on 'pathway to recovery' but popular support remains elusive

INTERVIEW:The Soldiers of Destiny suffered a catastrophic defeat at the polls last year, but Micheál Martin is a politician with a definite sense of mission

IS FIANNA Fáil leader Micheál Martin being realistic or just clutching at straws when he declares confidently that it has been a good year for Fianna Fáil?

The party was mauled in last year’s general election. The 19 TDs that survived are all male and include a fair amount of journeymen who are not going to take the party anywhere fast.

Some emotion-laden commentators have predicted the party won’t survive; of course it will. But the question will always be about the strength of the recovery. Opinion polls have consistently shown the party flatlining at about 16 or 17 per cent, neither up nor down from February 2011. For now, it has ceded ground to Sinn Féin.

So what’s good about that? For Martin it’s all about context, specifically the party making good on its promises to reinvent itself as a serious organisation. It’s about the 34 pieces of legislation (some substantial) published by Fianna Fáil in the past year. It’s about the party’s ardfheis, which brought 4,000 supporters to the RDS. It’s about David McGuinness’s strong performance in the Dublin West byelection and receding anger towards the party over the past 18 months. It’s about Martin’s own strong performance during the fiscal treaty referendum campaign, especially in dealing with Éamon Ó Cuív’s mutiny and being unequivocal in his support for a Yes vote.

Objectively, most commentators would talk about all this signalling a tentative recovery at most. But from the subjective viewpoint of the Fianna Fáil leader, the party has “established a pathway to recovery, no doubt about that”.

While accepting that his party’s policies in government were partly responsible for the economic meltdown, he argues that it needs to be put in context.

“There was a domestic bubble driven by cheap European lending. We also overspent here and reduced the taxation base too much and that put us in a weaker position in absorbing the shock.

“There is a positive mood. We have a long journey to go but are in a much better place than 12 months ago.

“On the doorstep, before the referendum, doors were opening and people were engaging. What has helped is a broader realisation over the past 18 months that it is not just an Irish crisis. It’s a banking and financial crisis that has had serious knock-ons in becoming a sovereign debt crisis. Look at Spain and Italy now. America is not out of it.”

Martin says the ardfheis in particular gave Fianna Fáil an impetus and marked the emergence of new potential candidates, many of them women.

“There’s a general sense of vitality and rejuvenation within the party itself.”

But that has not translated into any surge of support. Still in a state of sackcloth and ashes, to employ the Paisleyism, the party has focused on reorganisation and policy work, preparing the ground for the 2014 local elections.

“We have published 34 Bills in the last 12 months. That’s illustrative of the constructive approach. Many of the Bills have been innovative, Michael McGrath’s work on tackling mortgage arrears in particular.”

After the calamity of 2011, Martin and his closest advisers decided the party had to reinvent itself if it was to survive. Sober and undramatic policy work was identified as a key driver.

“We cannot go for short-term and shallow opportunism. There is a contrast between our approach and Sinn Féin’s. They occupy the Bank of Ireland and chop and change their policies to suit a populist agenda.

“We saw this with the Labour Party before the election. Opposition defiance can gain you short-term support. People want substance and credible solutions and credible policies. People have picked up on abandoned promises. People are sour about that and Fine Gael and Labour might now realise the cavalier nature of their pre-election campaigns.”

That approach is all very well but is not underestimating the threat of Sinn Féin, given that it is forging ahead, shaping up as the de facto main Opposition party.

“If we are to continue to look over our shoulders we will never advance our central agenda. That will gain greater credence than out-shouting SF. I would argue that in Dáil we have been stronger on Europe, on health and on finance. We pointed out the flawed budget estimate on health and issues within [the] HSE, and between the Department and Minister [James Reilly].

“On the health policy areas, we were effective as an Opposition party in raising those issues and gaining traction in the last number of weeks.”

So what are Martin’s big policy ideas? He says entrepreneurial activity has to be encouraged.

“A culture of entrepreneurship has to be inculcated – it’s okay to start and okay to fail at a business.

“In the context of the constitutional convention, we have been critical about its underwhelming nature. We think it should look at socio-economic rights as well.

“The introduction of free education had a very dramatic impact. The same has not happened in health. The system has not delivered in terms of access to children. That’s something we should consider.

“We need a similar provision in the Constitution that would confer the right of the children to get basic health, for children from zero to five, which are the crucial years for development and formation of a child.

“The system has become complacent and finds ways for not delivering.

“Look at the Disability Act. If it becomes a core value in the Constitution, society follows and it forces the pace somewhat.”

Martin is confident that the changes to Fianna Fáil rules on membership and candidate selection will result in many new candidates.

He believes the party has potential to make substantial gains in Dublin (where it has not a single TD at present) in the local elections.

He says Fianna Fáil has redefined its republicanism to emphasise equality of opportunity and social justice.

“We are a progressive party with a strong social conscience. We will seek real fairness in society in an all-island context. We want a genuinely egalitarian society and Ireland that is tolerant.”

It will also need an electorate that displays more tolerance than it did in February 2011.