European Diary: Fianna Fáil's four MEPs in the European Parliament will have kept an eye on the general election in the Czech Republic held at the weekend.
Politics in the Visegrad region is not normally a hot topic among the party faithful but the fate of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), which polled the most votes on Saturday, could be critical to Fianna Fáil's standing in the Europe Parliament.
Fianna Fáil officials privately fear that their pivotal position within the Union for Europe of Nations (UEN) group in the European Parliament, and indeed the group's fate, could become the victim of an ODS and British Conservative Party plot to set up a new eurosceptic group.
At stake is the influence that Fianna Fáil enjoys in the parliament, where Brian Crowley sits as co-leader of UEN, giving the party access to a range of benefits including extra speaking time in the parliament, office staff, and key positions on committees.
The threat to the UEN centres on Tory party leader David Cameron's pledge to remove his 26 MEPs from the biggest group in the parliament known as the European People's Party - European Democrats (EPP-ED). In a bid to attract support from eurosceptics during his Tory leadership election, Cameron made the pledge and sent William Hague on a mission to Europe to locate potential partners.
Under parliamentary rules, Hague needs to attract at least 19 MEPs from five states to form a group. Top of his hit list are Fianna Fáil's UEN partners the Law and Justice Party from Poland and the TB/LNNK party from Latvia.
He is also courting the ODS in the Czech Republic, who are currently disgruntled members of the EPP-ED.
At a meeting in January, ODS leader Jan Zahradil told Hague his party is willing to take "initial steps to map the ground" but only after the Czech elections in June.
With the Czech elections now done and dusted a fresh bout of speculation is causing concern among Fianna Fáil activists, if not their ebullient leader Brian Crowley.
"If we weren't in control of a group we wouldn't have the leverage to negotiate the big issues," admits UEN vice-president Crowley. "But there is nobody leaving our group. It is strong and committed," he insists.
The UEN has just 30 MEPs and any defections, particularly from Law and Justice, which has seven MEPs, could decimate it. The attitude of the Poles will be crucial.
"It is true that Law and Justice do share similarities with the Conservatives but you can also find similarities with Fianna Fáil," says Adam Bielan, the Law and Justice MEP who met Hague for talks this year.
"We will not discuss any link while the Tories are in the EPP-ED," he says, although not ruling out a dialogue if they leave.
ODS and Law and Justice are attracted to joining a group with a well-established party like the Tories but only if it can attract enough MEPs. ODS also has to weigh up what they would lose by getting out of the powerful EPP-ED group.
EPP-ED has 263 MEPs, which gives its members access to important committees and key European leaders. The leaders of Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Greece are in the EPP-ED fold, creating many networking and photo opportunities.
But much like the Tories, the ODS is uncomfortable with the pro-European stance of the EPP-ED and would prefer a more eurosceptic group.
"Our vision of the future of Europe is a little different from the EPP-ED. We don't believe in the concept of federalism and yes the Conservative Party is our closest ally in the [ parliament]," says Petr Duchon, an ODS MEP. "I don't think anything will happen because of the Czech elections . . . (but) there may be an option of January 2007."
January 2007 is the halfway point in the current parliament - when committee posts can be redistributed to any new political groups that are formed.
"All the indications are that there will be a new group, although it is difficult to say exactly when," says Martin Callanan, a Conservative MEP. "I'd like to see us get on with it but this is fundamentally a matter for William Hague [the Tories' shadow foreign secretary]."
Other Conservative MEPs are not so happy with the strategy and several have threatened to split with the party and stay in the EPP-ED group. But a positive signal from the ODS could spark a chain reaction that leaves Fianna Fáil out in the cold.
The disintegration of the UEN would force Fianna Fáil to look for new European partners and could rekindle a plan hatched by former Europe minister Dick Roche in 2004 to integrate Fianna Fáil's MEPs into the Liberal group (ALDE). At that time the four Fianna Fáil MEPs refused to join ALDE citing differences in policy, particularly its support for EU integration, reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and personal freedom in moral issues such as abortion.
Fianna Fáil MEP Seán Ó Neachtain stressed he could not join any group, whose members have "been very, very pro-abortion".
But there are few alternatives in the parliament.
Fianna Fáil is unlikely to join a new eurosceptic group formed by Tories and cannot join the EPP-ED, the party closest to its own political philosophy, because Fine Gael is a member.
So Fianna Fáil will be hoping against hope that David Cameron reneges on his pledge to leave the EPP-ED, and that the ODS, which may enter government in the Czech Republic, also stays where it is.