EU in crisis mode as it looks to Cowen for solution

EUROPEAN EXPECTATIONS: THE EU has been catapulted into crisis mode following yesterday's referendum defeat of the Lisbon treaty…

EUROPEAN EXPECTATIONS:THE EU has been catapulted into crisis mode following yesterday's referendum defeat of the Lisbon treaty.

European Commission president José Manuel Barroso immediately cleared his diary of events for next week to begin consultations with member states before Thursday's meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.

Mr Barroso, who repeatedly said there was no plan B if the Lisbon Treaty was rejected, now needs a plan C to prevent the same crisis of confidence that followed French and Dutch "Nos" to the EU constitution from paralysing Europe.

Brussels, Paris, Berlin and London were shocked by the Irish result but it is clear that they had a co-ordinated response for the Friday 13th nightmare scenario.

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By urging EU states to continue ratifying the Lisbon Treaty, they bought time and kept alive hopes that it can be resuscitated through a second referendum in Ireland or some other legal manoeuvre.

Only Czech president Vaclav Klaus, an ardent eurosceptic, insisted the Irish vote had killed the treaty. "The Lisbon Treaty project ended today with the decision of the Irish voters and its ratification cannot be continued," he said.

The first formal political talks on the referendum result and the way forward will take place in Luxembourg on Monday when Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin faces the unenviable task of explaining to his EU colleagues what went wrong.

But it will be Taoiseach Brian Cowen who will be expected to bring forward a plan of action to rescue the treaty or at least its proposed reforms to the EU leaders' summit on Thursday.

Mr Barroso and other EU leaders yesterday made clear that this was Ireland's problem first and foremost and the Government would be expected to find a solution to it.

At his press conference yesterday Mr Barroso made a point of announcing to the world that Mr Cowen had told him that he did not believe the Lisbon Treaty died with the Irish No vote.

The immediate reaction in Brussels, Paris and Berlin suggests that EU leaders believe Mr Cowen could perhaps deliver a Yes vote in a second referendum.

Alternatively, there are legal possibilities being explored by think-tanks in Brussels whereby the 26 other EU states could move ahead with the Lisbon reforms while Ireland remained a semi-detached member of the union.

But such ideas are fraught with political danger and could be interpreted as bullying Ireland, and might provoke real tensions between some EU states.

It is not yet clear what political impact the No vote will have on domestic opinion in eurosceptic states such as Britain, Denmark and the Czech Republic. British foreign secretary David Miliband insisted that Britain would proceed with its ratification process but an already weak Gordon Brown is sure to come under more pressure from eurosceptics.

In Denmark, the Irish vote could torpedo its plans to hold a referendum in September on its existing opt-outs from the EU treaties in fields such as defence and justice co-operation.

Privately, the Government must be hoping that a constitutional court challenge in the Czech Republic and its eurosceptic president can prevent ratification in Prague.

The Council of Ministers in Brussels can be a lonely place for politicians when their country is blocking 26 others from doing something.

For a small country the pressure can be intense. Mr Cowen will feel it next week when he will be expected to come up with a political solution to the EU's legal and political crisis.