Disgruntled eastern voters hold the key to Kohl's fate

A week before the federal election, both the Chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, and his Social Democratic challenger, Mr Gerhard Schroder, are fighting their final campaign battles in the former German Democratic Republic. The reason is that, although strategists for the main parties argue about everything from the state of the economy to the accuracy of opinion polls, they agree that the outcome of the election will be decided in the east.

This week's polls show Dr Kohl's Christian Democrats (CDU) closing the gap on the Social Democrats (SPD) to as little as three percentage points, suggesting that next week could see a close finish. But most of the Chancellor's gains have been made in the prosperous west, while his party trails by almost 10 points in the east of the country.

Eight years after unification, easterners are disappointed with life in the new Germany, where many feel they are treated as second-class citizens. Unemployment is twice as high as in the west and, in many former industrial areas, one person in four is without a job.

The crowds that cheered Dr Kohl in 1990 and swept him to victory in the first post-unification election remained loyal enough to re-elect him by a narrow margin four years later. After hundreds of further factory closures and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, the patience of the Chancellor's staunchest supporters in the east has now been stretched almost to the limit.

But if the intensity of easterners' dissatisfaction with their lot is likely to seal the fate of Dr Kohl's government, the form their protest takes could determine the shape of the coalition that replaces it. Strong support for the ex-communist Party of Democratic Socialism and the parties of the extreme right could cost the Chancellor his majority. But it would also make it impossible for the SPD to govern with its chosen coalition partners, the Greens, making a grand coalition between the SPD and the CDU the most likely outcome.

In a sign of how badly out of touch he is with eastern feeling, Dr Kohl tried to persuade his advisers to bill his eastern appearances as the "blooming landscapes tour". In a notorious speech in 1990, the Chancellor promised easterners "blooming economic landscapes" within a few years of unification.

Despite massive investment from the west, much of the east's industry was shut down and hundreds of thousands of people were driven out of work. Dr Kohl, who takes little interest in economic affairs, rejected a proposal by the former foreign minister to turn the east into a low-tax zone, in the hope of attracting foreign investment.

As easterners turned away from the CDU in state elections, the Chancellor directed his fire at the SPD, accusing it of cuddling up to the former communists in the PDS. It was a daring ploy, not least because many eastern CDU members are former pillars of the East German state.

It was also spectacularly unsuccessful, making many easterners feel that their past was being judged unfairly by westerners, who were fortunate enough to be born into democratic prosperity.

Despite Dr Kohl's efforts, support for the PDS has remained stubbornly above 20 per cent within the east, even if it is below the crucial 5 per cent in Germany as a whole.

Few voters pay much attention to PDS policies, which include higher taxes on fur coats and fast cars, as well as abandoning the euro and withdrawal from NATO. The party's appeal is in its defence of eastern interests and its refusal to apologise for a communist past that many easterners recall with more than a little affection.

The biggest worry for mainstream politicians is that young easterners will vote for right-wing parties such as the National Democrats or the German People's Union. Neither group is likely to win Bundestag seats but both are expected to enter parliament in the impoverished eastern state of Mecklenburg, which will also be elected on September 27th.