De Chastelain could still stave off Trimble's defeat in Assembly vote

With just two days to go to the crucial Assembly vote for First Minister, it emerged last night that Gen John de Chastelain could have a significant bearing on whether Mr David Trimble can be reinstated in the post.

Dissident Ulster Unionist Assembly members Mr Peter Weir and Ms Pauline Armitage will seek assurances that the IRA decommissioning initiative was both substantial and part of a process leading to full and speedy disarmament when they meet the decommissioning body this afternoon.

Gen de Chastelain's response could be instrumental in determining whether the two MLAs will support or oppose Mr David Trimble when he seeks re-election in the Assembly on Friday.

Both Mr Weir and Ms Armitage have stated that before deciding how they will vote they needed clarity and certainty that the IRA will fully put its arms beyond use within a specified timeframe.

Gen de Chastelain has so far refused to detail what IRA arms were put beyond use, because, he said, this would not further "the process of putting all arms beyond use".

It is highly unlikely that he would itemise the decommissioned weapons to the two MLAs, but he could elaborate on some of the detail he has so far released to the UUP and other parties. The general has already told Mr Trimble and other senior Ulster Unionists that he expects to meet the IRA again soon and that he does not consider the IRA action to be a one-off event.

Ulster Unionist sources said the mindset of Mr Weir and Ms Armitage going into the meeting - as to whether they were disposed to support or oppose Mr Trimble - would probably determine whether they would interpret Gen de Chastelain' s briefing in a positive or negative sense. They are currently signalling that they will oppose Mr Trimble on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Women's Coalition has tabled a motion for the meeting seeking to have Assembly standing orders amended so that its two MLAs, Prof Monica McWilliams and Ms Jane Morrice, could be redesignated as Ulster Unionists prior to the vote for the First and Deputy First Ministers.

Even their votes would not guarantee Mr Trimble's reinstatement. Were Mr Weir and Ms Armitage to join the DUP and other anti-agreement groupings in voting against Mr Trimble, the likely outcome is a tied 30:30 vote. In such an outcome, Mr Trimble would not be returned.

The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, said last night that he is considering taking High Court action to try to prevent the Women's Coalition MLAs redesignating. Such a move would be "absurd and contrary to the ground rules of the Belfast Agreement".

He posited a possible scenario of Sinn FΘin being the second largest party in the Assembly and in a position to take the Deputy First Minister post from the SDLP. "Could eight unionists then redesignate as SDLP nationalists just to ensure that Sinn FΘin was deprived of this position? It just would not be credible," he said.

A Sinn FΘin spokesman responded: "Peter Robinson should have enough to contend with in trying to deal with the many contradictions in the DUP's attitude to the agreement and the Executive without worrying about Sinn FΘin."

In another twist to the cliff-hanging vote, Mr Cedric Wilson, of the small Northern Ireland Unionist Party, is seeking support from all anti-agreement unionists for a petition of concern to be put to the Assembly on Friday.

Were he to get the 30 names necessary, the vote would have to be put back to Saturday, said Mr Wilson. "This would expose the fact that Mr Trimble does not have majority unionist support and would further compound his embarrassment."