Perhaps leaders of political parties should take more holidays. Over Christmas and the beginning of the millennium the situation in Northern Ireland was generally peaceful; daily life proceeded more or less normally and the only political news was the likes of Education Minister Martin McGuinness giving money to integrated schools or Sam Foster at the Department of the Environment urging cyclists to wear their helmets for safety.
But no sooner are the leaders back full time than we have the seeds of a decommissioning crisis, with Gerry Adams and David Trimble engaging in megaphone diplomacy across the broad Atlantic. Be "leaderly", Adams tells Trimble; give us the guns, the First Minister replies.
Once more round the mulberry bush. Can we really be back to the "D" word once again? Trimble gave himself a stay of execution at the last meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council by pushing the issue forward until February. Pundits are now speaking of "Waterfront One" and "Waterfront Two", on the assumption that the next UUC meeting will also be held at the concert hall by the banks of the Lagan.
Despite the rhetoric, close observers note that neither Trimble nor Adams look like men under heavy pressure. The First Minister talked tough outside Downing Street as expected. Time will tell whether it was more than just a tonic for the troops.
Adams, meanwhile, has rarely seemed more relaxed. When he emerged from the White House this week he did not look like a man who had been browbeaten for 45 minutes on the issue of decommissioning, although the issue undoubtedly was raised. There are heads of state who might have difficulty getting a meeting with President Clinton, but Adams had Madeleine Albright and Sandy Berger along for good measure.
The guest list at the Oval Office cuts no ice, however, with the sturdy delegates to the Ulster Unionist Council, who will next month have the fate of the Belfast Agreement in their hands once more. Lobbying and campaigning among the delegates has not started in earnest just yet and one senses a certain weariness about rehearsing the old arguments one more time.
Sinn Fein may have conceded the principle of decommissioning, but it is another thing for the IRA to put it into practice. No doubt tomorrow, as on most Sundays, there will be further reports that the "bang in the bog", as Peter Robinson calls it, is imminent. The theory goes that McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun love the plush of the ministerial car so much that they will go to any lengths to preserve their privileged positions.
Most of the usually reliable sources, however, say they have no evidence at present that weapons are about to be handed over. That option has clear connotations of surrender and it is difficult to find anyone who regards it as a serious prospect.
Another option is to disable the Semtex and dismantle the guns under the supervision of Gen de Chastelain's decommissioning body. Again, while there would be a certain political logic to such an event, there is no evidence at this admittedly early stage from any tried and tested quarter that it is about to happen in time for the UUC meeting on February 12th. That will not stop the two governments from putting the maximum pressure on republicans to move as far as they can.
An alternative which has gained currency in the past week, partly due to comments and responses to questions given by the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, is the notion that arms could be made "permanently inaccessible or unusable". Both the Irish and British legislation on decommissioning include this formula as part of the definition of "destruction of arms".
There are practical and political difficulties. One has heard Heath Robinson-style suggestions for arms to be sealed under several tons of concrete with alarms that would go off in Gen de Chastelain's office if anyone tried to break the seal. Apart from being mildly comical, the idea also raises constitutional issues: can the authorities in, say, the Republic, tolerate a situation where the locations of arms dumps have been notified to an official body and no further action is taken?
Admittedly, the legislation provides that persons who hand over weapons will not be subject to prosecution. But sources close to republican thinking say the issue is academic because the notification of arms dump locations to the decommissioning body is not under consideration.
Republicans do point out, however, that the arms are "in the ground" and the guns have been silent for most of the last six years. Of course this is not enough to keep the unionists happy, but it seems to be all that is on offer for the time being.
Much will depend on Gen de Chastelain's next report, due this month. While he may not come up with the words the unionists want to hear, perhaps he will provide sufficient reassurance for them to consider staying in the Executive at least until May. If the general reports that the republicans have defaulted on their obligations, the institutions are likely to be suspended and the Executive to lose its powers, perhaps continuing in shadow form, while a further review of the implementation of the Belfast Agreement is conducted.
Some may find that a wearisome prospect. The Executive has been functioning reasonably well: we are told there was broad cross-party unity at this week's meeting on the need to provide extra funds to deal with the flu crisis. Broadly speaking, apart from occasional appalling outrages, Northern Ireland is a society at peace. Over lunch yesterday, a colleague noted there was a time we would not have got from soup to coffee without the sound of an explosion from central Belfast. People are getting on with their lives: do they need another shock to the political system?
On the other hand there are those, particularly in the unionist community, who harbour doubts over the sincerity of former paramilitaries who now proclaim their devotion to democratic values. Decommissioning is seen as one way of assuaging those fears, although the example of the Loyalist Volunteer Force may well indicate that you can destroy some of your guns but continue to use others.
On a happier note, the Northern Secretary told Cabinet colleagues this week there was "a real sense of joy" in the North that devolution was happening. A bit strong, Peter, but there aren't too many people complaining.