Cowen cautious about FF regaining a majority

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE/CLARE:TAOISEACH Brian Cowen was cautious yesterday when asked if Fianna Fáil will regain its majority on the 32-seat Clare Council.

For 76 years prior to the 2004 local elections, FF enjoyed continuous domination of the council.

In the current council, FF has enjoyed a share of the mayoralty thanks to the party’s 15 of the council’s 32 seats.

However, on a constituency visit to Clare yesterday to rally FF candidates and supporters, when asked would FF regain control of the council, Mr Cowen responded: “I’m very confident that what has been achieved by FF councillors in Clare will be reflected in continuing support and policies for people that are standing.”

Contrast Mr Cowen’s reluctance to make any predictions with Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny last week expressing confidence in Ennis that the party could secure a majority on the council.

However, if that was to occur, it would demand an incredible performance from a party that secured 10 seats on 29 per cent of the vote in the 2004 local elections.

Already, Fine Gael will be contesting the election with two of its strongest performers last time out, Joe Carey TD and current mayor, councillor Madeleine Taylor Quinn not standing on this occasion.

A more likely scenario is a combination of Fine Gael and other parties to finally end Fianna Fáil’s 81-year long grip on the mayor’s office.

In 2004, FF won its 15 seats on 41.5 per cent of the vote.

The battlegrounds that will go a long way to decide the make-up of the next council are set to be fought in the mainly urban areas of Ennis and Shannon, where just under 50 per cent of seats will be decided.

Arising from an overhaul of electoral boundaries, the areas have gained three seats at the expense of the predominantly rural Kilrush, Ennistymon and – now defunct – Scariff areas, who lost just under 10 per cent of councillors in the shake-up.

Residual resentment against the Government over its handling of the temporary loss of the Shannon-Heathrow route and the ending of 24-hour AE services at Ennis General Hospital is expected the hit the Fianna Fáil vote.

Factor in the faltering economy and it will be a major surprise if FF can hold onto its 15 seats.

Since June 2004, the unemployment rate in Clare has soared by 150 per cent from 3,848 to 9,618.

The 5,770 additional people now out of work account for 10 per cent of the people who voted last time out and how many of those are likely to vote against Government parties will be troubling Fianna Fáil strategists.

Sitting councillors from all parties will also be mindful that the Clare electorate is volatile, with 10 new faces returned in 2004.

FF is set to lose a seat in the five-seater Kilrush area with councillor Pat Keane most vulnerable, while it could also lose an additional two seats in the new Killaloe and Ennis areas.

A Fine Gael source said that the party’s gains are likely to be made by Tony Mulqueen in Ennis West, Pat Burke in Killaloe and Marinella Rafferty Frost in Shannon with Gabriel Keating taking Ms Taylor Quinn’s seat.

If all of that transpires and the party holds onto its existing seats, that would give FG a total of 13.

The Independents however, are set to hold the balance of power with former TD James Breen set to regain his council seat in Ennis West and ensure that five Independents are returned and join councillors Christy Curtin; Gerry Flynn; Tommy Brennan and the only woman seeking re-election, councillors Patricia McCarthy.

Labour will be confident that its sole councillor, Paschal Fitzgerald will be returned, while the Green Party’s Brian Meaney has a battle to retain his seat in the now divided Ennis area.