China expects warming of relations in Clinton's second term

ONE of Mr Warren Christopher's last acts as US Secretary of State will be to prepare the ground for a summit meeting in the Philippines…

ONE of Mr Warren Christopher's last acts as US Secretary of State will be to prepare the ground for a summit meeting in the Philippines later this month between President Clinton and China's President Jiang Zemin, which could usher in a new and happier era in US Chinese relations.

Indeed the communist Chinese government expects and hopes for nothing less than global ring during Mr Clinton's second four year term, when he is released from the constraints of domestic electoral pressure.

For the first four years of his presidency, relations between the US and the emerging superpower in Asia have been fraught with differences, mainly over Taiwan, trade copyright piracy, arms proliferation and human rights.

Ties between Washington and Beijing went into a near freeze over the sensitive issue of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a rebel province. There have been no top level contacts between the two countries since Mr Clinton infuriated China by giving a short term US visa to the Taiwan president two years ago.

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Relations sank to a new low when US warships were sent to patrol the waters of the Chinese coast after Beijing staged military manoeuvres early this year to dissuade Taiwanese electors from backing independence candidates.

Mr Christopher will now visit Beijing next week for discussions on the agenda for the meeting between Mr Clinton and the Chinese President, which will take place on the margins of the Asian Pacific Economic Co operation summit in the Philippines at the bend of the month.

It has not gone unnoticed in the Chinese capital that Mr Christopher's visit comes just after the US presidential election, when a new Clinton administration will be redefining its China policy.

As if to signal its desire for improved relations by reducing tensions over human rights, China released dissident Chen Ziming from prison on Wednesday to allow him to receive medical treatment. His release came seven days after a Beijing court jailed former student leader Wang Dan for 11 years which promoted expressions of concern around the world, particularly the US.

Both sides say ties have already begun to improve after a series of meetings in recent weeks. In October CIA director John Deutch visited China and met officials for talks on "important global trends and threats to international security" as a CIA spokesman put it. His trip followed reports that Beijing had sold a new batch of nuclear weapons related equipment to Pakistan.

Beijing's hopes for a warming in Mr Clinton's China policy stem partly from its desire to become a member of the new World Trade Organisation. Chinese officials have long complained about what they call American obstruction in blocking its entry to the organisation on favourable terms as a developing country - though the US is not alone in objecting to Chinese membership.

Many western countries have complained that China has not done enough to lower tariffs and open its markets, though China has made moves in that direction. China's growing US trade surplus also continues to irritate Washington, diplomats say.

Another issue which could complicate the impetus for better relations is that of copyright piracy in China.

It is against this background that Mr Clinton meets Mr Jiang in an encounter which will have, important consequences not just for Sino US relations but the stability of the Pacific region.

A worsening of ties could exacerbate regional tensions over North Korea, Taiwan and unpopulated islands in the China Sea claimed by China, Japan and Taiwan. It could also jeopardise China's open door economic policy.

Beijing would also welcome a lowering of international tensions to enhance prospects for a successful transfer of authority in Hong Kong next summer, if only to show Taiwan that it can feel secure with a "one China two systems" policy.

But a key ingredient to the process is the coming Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in autumn next year. With a leadership struggle in prospect either at the congress or when the still influential former Chinese leader, Mr Deng Xiaoping, succumbs to a long illness, it is unlikely that Mr Zemin would want to risk alienating conservatives by easing up on dissidents or the media.

Tough public statements and actions by Beijing during the last few months, apart from the release of Mr Wang, point in the opposite direction. Any new rapprochement between the US and China will have to take this into account.