Change in Westminster puts new wind behind Welsh assembly

CARDIFF LETTER:With Labour no longer in power nationally, the Welsh are turning to an institution for which they had previously shown little enthusiasm

FEW TODAY would argue that the world needs more politicians, but some in Wales maintain exactly that in the wake of last week’s referendum where voters decided to take some more control over their own destiny – if with little enthusiasm.

In last Thursday’s referendum, voters decided that the Welsh National Assembly in Cardiff Bay should be free to decide alone on more than 20 issues that have up to now required co-operation between Cardiff and Westminster.

The 60-strong assembly is currently controlled by a Labour- Plaid Cymru coalition, although voters will have to return to the ballot boxes on May 5th to decide on the make-up of the devolved assembly for the next term.

Now to enjoy greater powers, some believe that the Assembly, where a third of the members serve in government or occupy some government-controlled committee post, is too small effectively to act as an inquisitor.

Back in 1997, leading University of Wales academic Prof Keith Patchett issued a prescient warning that has application in places far from Cardiff Bay too when he wrote: “In any institution you can think of, those who belong to it can be divided into three: a third who are everyday effective people, a third who are capable of a leadership role and a third who shouldn’t be there.”

In 2004, the Richards commission argued that an extra 20 assembly members were needed, along with the replacement of a voting system that sees 40 elected by constituencies and 20 from a list.

Supporting the introduction of the single transferable vote, the commission said assembly members should be elected from three, four or five-seat constituencies. Labour, however, refused to agree to this.

Today, the arguments are being made again, with support coming from those who supported the concept of devolution in the first place and those who believed that such a move would mark the long, slow fracturing of the United Kingdom.

Noting the numbers of TDs in Dáil Éireann, former Labour leader of Bridgend council Jeff Jones argued in a recent column in the Western Mail in favour of extra politicians – a move that could cost up to £10 million a year, depending on whose figures one believes.

“One of the problems with our Assembly is that it is actually quite a tiny institution with not much depth of talent. We have 60 AMs with a population of three million, while Estonia has 101 MPs with a population of 1.3 million and Ireland has 166 TDs with a population of 4.4 million.”

Standing in the National Assembly building last week, just minutes after the final result was declared, Rachel Banner of True Wales, who opposed the extension of powers, held to the same view.

"There isn't adequate scrutiny of legislation as it is with 60 members," she told The Irish Times. "It is difficult for assembly members to be across everything when there are only 42 of them who are not in government."

While the Welsh public is probably not much interested for now, the issue may attract more support after the next House of Commons election, due in 2015, when the number of MPs is to fall from 650 to 600.

The change is tied legislatively to the May 5th referendum on the alternative vote, but will come into effect regardless of the outcome. It will see Wales losing 10 of its current 40 MPs in the Commons.

The Welsh Assembly should have had 80 members from the off if the original plans had been followed through, but Tony Blair’s decision to put the issue in a referendum meant that Labour needed Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats to campaign for a Yes vote, and this they would not do if Labour stuck behind its determination to have the assembly elected by first past the post.

Forced into conceding the additional member PR system, Labour then, in the eyes of its critics, strove to ensure that the number elected from the list was as small as possible, lest the new system deprive it of power in one of its traditional heartlands, leaving the Welsh with an assembly of just 60, compared to the 108 at Stormont and the 129 at Holyrood in Edinburgh.

Meanwhile, the attitude of the Welsh towards devolution appears contradictory. The number wanting the dissolution of the Assembly has fallen over the last 14 years, while so too has the number of those who believe it should have only limited law-making powers.

More than two out of three people, according to polls conducted before last week’s referendum, believe that it is the Cardiff Bay body, rather than Westminster, that should have most influence over the lives of the Welsh.

Fifty-seven per cent believe control over policing and the justice system should be devolved from Westminster, while 59 per cent think the same of welfare and benefits, with just 23 per cent favouring Whitehall’s continuing control.

However, when faced with the question in a referendum, just 35 per cent bothered to vote, while local media coverage was often perfunctory at best.

In the years since devolution was accepted by voters in 1997, the Welsh, perhaps, began to feel that the assembly had more powers than was in fact the case because Labour was in power in Westminster, but those days have now passed.

Today the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in power in London.

Suddenly, Wales’s National Assembly is seen by some who may not have favoured its creation as a bulwark against spending cuts, even if it does not have powers to raise its own taxes.