Challenge is to keep Trimble at the helm

Looking back over the past fascinating and frenetic few days: the DUP and Sinn Fein made huge political strides, the Ulster Unionist…

Looking back over the past fascinating and frenetic few days: the DUP and Sinn Fein made huge political strides, the Ulster Unionist Party is wounded but not mortally, while the SDLP is carrying more superficial bruising.

Looking forward to how the forthcoming negotiations will unfold and how Mr David Trimble will handle any challenges to his leadership of the UUP is a much trickier business. Mr Tony Blair and Mr Bertie Ahern are now properly engaged and over the next week or so they will strive to sustain the agreement and keep Mr Trimble at the helm.

Sinn Fein has made significant political gains and confirmed itself in terms of percentage vote as the larger of the two nationalist parties. Before the election, Mr Gerry Adams said his ambition was to surpass the SDLP by 2006.

The consolation for Mr John Hume is that the SDLP, because of the proportional representation system, at least has more council seats than Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein, with 21 per cent, won 108 seats, 34 up on its 1997 council total. The SDLP, at 19 per cent, won 117, only three down on its 120 seats four years ago.

READ MORE

Due to the age profile of its leadership and structures, changes are inevitable in the SDLP, but because its council vote held they can happen in a gentle and benevolent manner. Mr Hume says he has no intention of standing down.

One SDLP official certainly found the silver lining yesterday. "We have to try and match Sinn Fein organisationally on the ground and we must do it before the Assembly elections in two years' time. And the odd thing is that if Brid (Rodgers) had won West Tyrone we wouldn't do it. Now we have to, because it's a case of sink or swim," he said.

The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister and the SDLP hope that Mr Trimble can lead the UUP into the coming talks. Senior Sinn Fein figures say they, too, would be happier dealing with Mr Trimble, but if he is ousted then they will work with whoever replaces him.

The UUP won 154 seats, 31 down on the last local elections. The DUP won 131 seats, 40 up on 1997. Alliance suffered badly, dropping from 41 to 28 seats, while a number of independents and smaller unionist parties were also squeezed.

Justified exultation for the DUP, but it could have been much worse for Mr Trimble. The UUP is still the largest party at Westminster and at local level.

The gap is narrowing all the time, however. In the local elections the UUP won 23 per cent against 21 per cent for the DUP. Sinn Fein is also on 21 per cent, against 19 per cent for the SDLP. The closeness of the figures graphically illustrates the logic of the consensual philosophy of the Belfast Agreement, and how power-sharing between the UUP, DUP, Sinn Fein and SDLP makes political sense.

What has emerged clearly from these elections is that all the parties, no matter how deep or bitter the antipathies, accept that logic. And that includes the DUP. The problem, of course, is that unionists refuse to accept Sinn Fein as part of the equation while the IRA holds on to its weapons.

It is still unclear whether Mr Trimble will be challenged for the leadership at the Ulster Unionist Council on Saturday week. The Rev Martin Smyth may stand against him if nobody else will, although there may be efforts to tempt him away from this by giving him a relatively free run to become UUC president.

Mr Smyth, who was very comfortable in the company of senior DUP people at the Belfast local counts, wants Mr Jeffrey Donaldson to take his chances now. Mr Donaldson is not sure if this is his time. In the face of such pressure, the task for Mr Trimble is to persuade his council to allow him to test his July 1st arms resignation tactic.

The two governments lay store by the IRA's pledge of May last year that it will verifiably put weapons beyond use if, in particular, policing and demilitarisation are resolved.

This creates possibilities, but Mr Trimble is under greater pressure from his anti-agreement or sceptical wing to maintain a firmer line, not only on arms but, more problematically, on policing as well.

Standing alongside Mr Trimble outside Downing Street yesterday evening after their meeting with Mr Blair, the new MP, Mr David Burnside, was insisting that the RUC name and insignia "operationally" must be part of the police service. Mr Burnside appeared to be trying to box his leader in on policing, and the danger the governments see is that the UUC could do the same.

And with barely time for a breather it's back into the cauldron of gruelling negotiations. After a punishing and extraordinary period of electoral politics, one Irish source at least was keeping total faith in the solidity of the Belfast Agreement.

"If we can keep David Trimble we can deliver a solution in the short term. If we have somebody else as Ulster Unionist leader then it will take longer, but it will happen," he said.