The 4 million boed figure, a target BP set last year, would be the company's highest annual output in over 30 years.
Analysts also expect BP to say on Wednesday that it continued to benefit from high oil prices in the fourth quarter and to register strong margins in its refining business.
"It's going to be pretty tight, but I think they'll get to the 4 million barrels (target)," said Neil McMahon, oil analyst at Bernstein.
But investors will also be looking below the headline output number to see if BP is starting to deliver on new projects, rather than relying on Russia to drive all its future growth.
Investors are betting on a turnaround in non-Russian production in 2005, after drops in recent quarters.
"I'm expecting a decline (from) Q4, 2003, to Q4, 2004, but less of a decline than Q3 to Q3, so I think we're starting to see the non-Russian business perform," said Deutsche Bank analyst J.J. Traynor.