An angry public has some bad news for Fianna Fail

The public is threatening vengeance, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll, and they may get nastier still, reports Mark…

The public is threatening vengeance, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll, and they may get nastier still, reports Mark Brennock

The fall from grace of Mr Ahern, his Coalition and his party has been both dramatic and comprehensive.

The drip feed of cutbacks throughout the summer culminated in last weekend's revelation of a Cabinet memo making clear the Government knew this was coming all along. Opposition politicians are always quick to claim the public is "angry" but this latest poll shows that this time, they are right.

No one opposition party has capitalised dramatically on the damage to the Government and Fianna Fáil. All have reaped some benefit from the drop in Fianna Fáil support.

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Usually when coalition governments hit an oily patch the minority party suffers disproportionately. However the Progressive Democrats have reversed that trend, actually gaining a percentage point to 5 per cent, with the satisfaction rating of their leader, Ms Mary Harney,unchanged at 57 per cent.

For voters, it appears to be Fianna Fáil in particular that they want to punish for the sudden post-election change of tune.

Government politicians would ritually react to this poll by saying that it shows an artificial and temporary drop in support because it was taken last Monday and Tuesday - immediately after the contents of the Cabinet memo were revealed.

In this instance, however, they can count themselves lucky that it wasn't taken a couple of days later, because the poll reflects only the damage done to the Government by the belief that they misled the voters in May.

The Flood tribunal report and the Taoiseach's extraordinary self-congratulatory response to it will have damaged them even more.

The Government's immediate fear will be that the strong disillusionment will feed into the No campaign for the Nice treaty referendum. The finding that those dissatisfied with the Government are much more likely to vote No will feed that fear.

While the poll shows greater support for than opposition to the treaty, the margin between both positions is narrower than in the opinion poll immediately preceding the June 2001 poll. Then, this turned into a clear rejection of the treaty.

Other Government promoted constitutional amendments have seen their support whittled away as polling day approached.

This time around, the Yes campaign is promising a much bigger efforts in the final stages of the campaign. If this happens, it could ensure that history does not repeat itself.

There is also a theory that that the fears for future economic prosperity could actually benefit the Yes side. When voters feel secure about the future, they can indulge in protest voting and did so last year, the theory goes. When things look uncertain, they may be swayed by the argument that Nice is necessary for economic prosperity.

The poll finds 50 per cent of voters believe that the treaty is needed not to lose foreign investment in Ireland, with just 27 per cent disagreeing. If the Yes side can hammer this point home in the remaining three weeks, they could yet pull off a victory.

Defeat in the Nice referendum in three weeks time would represent yet another serious blow to the Taoiseach's authority.

The abandonment of Mr Ahern's dream of a State-funded national stadium; the volte-face in the Government's tone on the public finances; the Flood tribunal report, and the loss of Nice would represent a truly disastrous run of events for the Taoiseach and the Government.

Their only consolation is that the next general election is very likely a long, long way away. In addition, none of the opposition parties has gained significant momentum from recent developments.

Fine Gael's new leader Enda Kenny has followed the tradition established in recent years by new leaders of his party by registering a satisfaction rating even lower than that of his predecessor.

Just as the party calculated wrongly that Mr Michael Noonan would reverse poor poll ratings under Mr John Bruton, so Mr Kenny's support at 28 per cent is three points lower than that of Mr Noonan before the general election.

In fairness to Mr Kenny, he has only been in the job for a short period, and has devoted most of his energy so far to communicating with his demoralised party rather than with the public. He has time to redress the situation before leadership panic sets into Fine Gael again.

Fine Gael will be very modestly pleased by its rise in support from 20 per cent in the last strictly comparable poll in February to 23 per cent now. However this shows very little change from its general election performance of 22.5 per cent.

Labour is waiting in the hope that a new leader will boost the party at the start of another long period in Opposition during which it must work to stem the growth of Sinn Féin and the Green Party - a growth which has been largely at Labour's expense.

In the interim it will be comforted by its 14 per cent rating, which is more than three points higher than its general election performance of 10.8 per cent and a two point rise since the last comparable poll in February.

Satisfaction with Mr Ruairí Quinn was not measured in this poll as he is to be replaced as leader within a month.

The fall in support for Fianna Fáil, however, has also given the Green Party a three-point rise to 8 per cent and Sinn Féin an increase of one point to 9 per cent. The respective party leaders, Mr Trevor Sargent and Mr Gerry Adams, have also seen their personal approval ratings increase.

The battle for pre-eminence among the opposition parties has seen no major gains or losses yet. However the Government has handed them all an agenda on which to try to build public support.

Today, the old clichés are the best: a week is a long time in politics.