How the Coalition is slowly changing policy towards Ukrainian war refugees

The scramble to house tens of thousands of people seeking protection in Ireland has bedevilled the Government for two years. More than the other two big shocks this Coalition has faced – Covid and the cost-of-living crisis – it seems likely to have a lasting effect on the fortunes of the Government and politics writ large.

But now there are signs it is splitting into two distinct challenges, with a creeping cause for optimism on the Ukrainian accommodation front — while the outlook for accommodating asylum seekers and the impact on social cohesion looks as dour as ever.

There has been a steep drop in the number of Ukrainians coming to Ireland, coinciding with the Government’s decision to tighten the accommodation and social welfare offering. Before those changes have even been legislated for, it seems an effect is apparent: up to January 22nd, 796 people arrived, according to figures shared with Ministers at a Cabinet subcommittee meeting this week.

This all seemed very unlikely a few months ago, but it has cleared the way for a strategic shift that Coalition figures hope might relieve some of the crushing pressure on the Department of Integration

In December, the figure was over 2,150 — so on current trends, a drop of 50 per cent looks likely. Perhaps more surprisingly, Ukrainians are beginning to leave State-provided accommodation. Much like the arrivals figures, it is early days, but on average over the last week 47 people left to go back to Ukraine, move into private accommodation, or travel elsewhere. There have been days when more people left than arrived.

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This all seemed very unlikely a few months ago, but it has cleared the way for a strategic shift that Coalition figures hope might relieve some of the crushing pressure on the Department of Integration, which for two years has been battling to source beds countrywide. New arrivals are being accommodated in vacant beds in already-contracted facilities; the department plans to stop accepting new offers of beds in hotels and other commercial providers for Ukrainians and even cancel contracts with unsuitable providers. The sense of relief is palpable among those involved in the effort: “It was not sustainable to keep growing and managing that large a stock of accommodation,” says one person closely involved with the effort.

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Shortly, Ukrainians will be directed to one of six “welcome centres” for 90 days and the intention is to effectively allow all the private sector accommodation contracts to run out. Minister for Integration Roderic O’Gorman told The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast that when their 90 days elapse, the doors will be closed to Ukrainians. There may be hard cases that test this: but in the round, if current trends are sustained, there is a sliver of good news here for the Coalition — a chance to catch its breath. O’Gorman also shifted gears subtly this week, speaking about how Ukrainians had to be supported in returning home — and how the EU needs to think immediately about what happens when the Temporary Protection Directive, which allows them to work and live in the bloc, expires next May.

Unfortunately for the Government, and O’Gorman in particular, that is only true for one side of the ledger. The problem of accommodating asylum seekers is much more vexing and much more permanent. O’Gorman predicted this week that arrivals will continue at the level of 13,000-15,000 annually, way above and beyond what the system is capable of handling. To deal with this, the Coalition has invested significant political capital in a new plan that focuses on State-provided accommodation; a smaller number of new, larger centres (six has been mooted, but sources insist no final figure has been arrived at yet). These are separate to the welcome centres which will be for Ukrainians only. The hope is that, properly managed, the centres can be opened without the kind of backlash that has struck at Roscrea and elsewhere. The chances of that hope being borne out are vanishingly small — it is more likely that major conflicts will have to be managed when the locations become public — something that is a closely guarded secret in the department where sources insist that there is no list of sites yet, merely “options”.

The interminable nature of the problem is beginning to grate internally. O’Gorman is widely liked and respected within the Government, confides one source, adding: ‘But Jesus, the accommodation stuff is a mess’

However, perhaps even more worrying than the ructions the new plan may usher in is the prospect that the current arrangements will persist for some time to come — likely years, as O’Gorman conceded this week. The reliance on private sector accommodation, and the associated stresses it is going to put on Irish politics, are going nowhere. The new plan will come to Cabinet in the next couple of weeks — there is an expectation of a final-ish proposal going to Coalition leaders next week, although not to Cabinet. But the next day, nothing will change on the ground — there will be no light switch moment where everything changes, admitted one senior insider. There will be a published plan to move to a better system, but as the same source wearily observed on Friday, the plan is being worked on “but so is draining the Shannon”.

The interminable nature of the problem is beginning to grate internally. O’Gorman is widely liked and respected within the Government, confides one source, adding: “But Jesus, the accommodation stuff is a mess”. At Thursday’s meeting of the Cabinet subcommittee, no details on the new plan were shared, adding to a sense in some quarters that policy is being developed in a vacuum without widespread consultation across Cabinet. Sources in O’Gorman’s camp counter that all the formal channels are followed and that sometimes he has struggled to even get new policies in front of leaders or Cabinet members despite his best efforts. But there is a sense of frustration nonetheless that major flashpoints like Roscrea can emerge almost instantaneously — described by one Minister as a “tipping point” and an “overreach” where a full hotel was converted to asylum seeker accommodation.

Suggestions that O’Gorman had been targeted by ministerial colleagues were the subject of ferocious counterbriefing on Thursday as the Coalition downplayed tensions

This played out at Thursday’s Cabinet subcommittee meeting. There were conflicting reports of how high tensions ran at the meeting: some sources in the room or briefed on proceedings said it was “rough” and that O’Gorman was tackled by the Tánaiste, who was said to have been critical of how policy is being made and called for a more rounded approach. Others downplayed it, saying Martin was tetchy but not angry — a mode familiar to people who have worked alongside him for years, characterised by one person as his “Victor Meldrew” setting.

Suggestions that O’Gorman had been targeted by ministerial colleagues were the subject of ferocious counterbriefing on Thursday as the Coalition downplayed tensions: “Completely inaccurate,” texted one figure; a second said anyone suggesting otherwise was a “turncoat” and spinning “myopic and inaccurate” readouts of the meeting.

Whatever the full truth, sources agreed there were “frank contributions”, including from O’Gorman himself. Expect more of this to come as the Coalition tangles with this most volatile problem.

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