A US listing might lift Glanbia shares

Big share price gains don’t always equate to big valuations. Davy, which last week reiterated its outperform rating on Glanbia, argues the stock still trades on “undemanding valuation metrics” even after a year-to-date rally of over 30 per cent.

Davy revised earnings forecast means Glanbia trades on 13.4 times estimated 2023 earnings, falling to 12.7 in 2024. That certainly looks “undemanding”, but shareholders might wonder if Glanbia could benefit from a more generous multiple by listing in the US.

The possibility of higher valuations is one reason why CRH will move its primary listing from Dublin to New York later this month. Paddy Power-owner Flutter has also received shareholder approval for a US listing. As The Irish Times reported last month, the Department of Finance is worried Glanbia and other large Irish companies like Kerry and Kingspan may follow suit, with a private briefing note for Minister for Finance Michael McGrath suggesting “liquidity and valuation siren calls” might tempt them into considering a US listing.

Outgoing Glanbia chief executive Siobhán Talbot has since said the company is not looking at a US listing “at this point in time”. However, Glanbia changed its reporting currency to dollars earlier this year. Most of its revenues come from the US, while it generates over 90 per cent of its earnings in dollars. Add in the likelihood a US listing would result in a richer valuation multiple, and it’s easy to see why Glanbia might eventually be tempted to follow in CRH’s footsteps.