Biden backs Israel but could come under pressure if Palestinian casualty levels continue to rise

The visit of US president Joe Biden to the Middle East on Wednesday – in the midst of a growing conflict – was always going to be something of a gamble. However, the explosion at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, which left hundreds of Palestinians dead, undermined the visit even before Air Force One left Washington. The second leg of the trip, a planned summit with leaders of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority as well as the king of Jordan, was quickly cancelled.

The postponement of talks just hours before a US president was due to arrive represented a setback for US diplomacy, particularly given the level of financial support provided by Washington. In September the Biden administration approved $235 million in military aid for Egypt that it had withheld for two years due to human rights concerns.

As Biden arrived in Tel Aviv there were billboards welcoming him to Israel. But as the president spoke on Wednesday, in neighbouring Lebanon authorities were using tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters at the US embassy in Beirut.

The Biden administration had hoped, as a centrepiece of its foreign policy, to facilitate an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia which could have reshaped the politics of the Middle East. However the Hamas attacks on Israel earlier this month and the response it generated have left the region in turmoil.

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The president stressed the importance of continuing work to secure a greater integration between Israel and its neighbours. He said the recent attacks by Hamas “only strengthened my commitment and determination and will to get that done”.

However it remains to be seen whether the prospect of a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which seemed within touching distance last month when Biden and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu spoke at the United Nations in New York, is just temporarily in the deep freeze or has been permanently damaged.

Netanyahu had invited Biden to visit Israel in a conversation last weekend. But confirmation of the trip only came on Monday night after US secretary of state Antony Blinken spent several hours in talks with the Israeli cabinet on a number of key issues, including international aid getting to civilians who are trapped in Gaza.

Biden announced on Wednesday that Israel had agreed that trucks should begin moving supplies from Egypt to Gaza, subject to inspections and that the material did not go to Hamas. He hoped this process could get under way as soon as possible – but did not set a specific time frame.

The president sought to provide some balance. He said the US would provide an additional $100 million in humanitarian assistance to Gaza and the West Bank. He said the US unequivocally stood for the protection of civilian life.

However the US has also fully backed the Israeli line on the explosion at the hospital in Gaza. Shortly after Biden’s speech in Israel the national security council in Washington gave the US government’s clearest statement on the issue: “While we continue to collect information our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open-source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday.”

In his speech in Tel Aviv Biden restated his support for a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

However for many across the Middle East and to some in his own party the main message coming from the president’s visit was that the United States stood with Israel. “Israel, you are not alone”, he said on two occasions. The president also said he would shortly be proposing to the US Congress the provision of “an unprecedented support package for Israel’s defence”.

The president urged Israelis not be “consumed by rage” in the aftermath of the attacks by Hamas. He has also urged Israel to adhere to the rules of war. However he has not called for restraint, an issue that may bubble up within his own Democratic Party.

Initially after the attacks by Hamas there was virtual across-the-board political support for Israel. Among progressives in Biden’s party, however, there is considerable sympathy for the Palestinian cause. More than a dozen have put forward a resolution seeking a ceasefire and the provision of humanitarian assistance.

In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian member of Congress, addressed the president directly after the explosion at the hospital in Gaza. “This is what happens when you refuse to facilitate a ceasefire and help de-escalate,” she wrote.

The president is adamant that his administration is backing Israel. If there are more civilian casualties in Gaza he may come under increasing pressure from the left of his party.