Labour boasts commanding 17-point opinion poll lead over Tories

Labour goes into the Westminster summer break with a commanding 17-point lead over the Conservatives, despite a fall in approval ratings for party leader Keir Starmer.

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer put Labour on 42 per cent, down one point since a fortnight ago, while the Tories are down three points to 25 per cent; their poorest showing since the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.

The Liberal Democrats are on 11 per cent (up two points), Reform UK is on 10 per cent (up two points), while the Greens stay unchanged on 6 per cent.

Labour’s progress over the past year – and the decline of the Tories over the same period – is illustrated by the fact that in late June 2022, just before Boris Johnson quit as prime minister, Labour’s lead over the Tories with Opinium stood at just two points.

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Starmer’s party is also far ahead of the Tories on a series of “branding” issues on which Opinium quizzes voters.

When voters were asked whether the two parties were “in touch with ordinary people”, Labour showed a net rating of +7 per cent (when the number of people who answer negatively is subtracted from the number who answer positively) while the Tories’ net score stood at -53 per cent.

When asked if the party was “competent”, Labour received a net score of -3 per cent against the Tories’ -37 per cent.

Despite suggestions from critics in the party and media that Labour lacks a clear agenda, when people were asked whether Labour and the Tories had “a clear sense of purpose”, Labour scored -3 per cent against the Tories -30 per cent.

After a week in which Starmer has been involved in a row over his refusal to commit to ending the two-child benefit cap, the Labour leader’s personal ratings have dropped from -4 per cent to -14 per cent. Among current Labour voters it has gone from +52 per cent net approval (64 per cent approving, 12 per cent disapproving) two weeks ago to +38 per cent (55 approving, 17 per cent disapproving).

Starmer’s lead over Rishi Sunak on the question of who would make the best prime minister has also been cut from 6 per cent two weeks ago, to 3 per cent now.

Crucially, however, at a time when much of the political debate has been dominated by the economy, Labour lead the Tories on the issue, with 31 per cent saying the economy would be run best by Starmer, against 29 per cent who favour Sunak being in charge of the nation’s finances.

On the issue of spending, Labour leads by 10 points with 33 per cent thinking they would spend more efficiently, against 23 per cent who would prefer the Tories to be in charge. – Guardian