Substitute bench more important than usual in upcoming European elections

There is a remote set of circumstances where Máirín McGrath, the 26-year-old daughter of Independent TD Mattie McGrath, could find herself becoming a member of the European Parliament, despite not being on the ballot paper next month.

If an MEP vacates their seat, as often previously happened when a politician was later elected to the Dáil, their replacement is parachuted into the EU parliament from a list of substitutes. The make-up of those replacement lists this time around is more important than usual given Ireland is less than a year out from a general election.

Aontú leader and sole TD Peadar Tóibín has his sister, Emer Tóibín, a councillor for the party in Navan, first on his replacement list in the Midlands North West race. If Tóibín, whose small party has been polling well, wins a seat in Europe and he then decides to run again for the Dáil in Meath West, Aontú could end up with an MEP and TD.

If Independent TD Michael McNamara is elected in Ireland South and doesn’t finish his term for whatever reason, Máirín McGrath, a county councillor and daughter of Tipperary TD Mattie McGrath, would be in line to become an MEP as the first name on McNamara’s replacement list.

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Sitting MEPs Mick Wallace and Clare Daly, who are standing for re-election in the South and Dublin constituencies respectively, each have the other at the top of their lists. Second behind Wallace on Daly’s list is political activist and former MP Bernadette McAliskey. Thomas Pringle, Independent TD for Donegal, is the only name on the list of Independent MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan. Where Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are running several candidates in constituencies, those on the ballots also make up the first names on the replacement lists.

Two of Ireland’s 13 MEPs who weren’t elected in 2019 found their way to the European Parliament as replacements, Sinn Féin’s Chris MacManus and Fine Gael’s Colm Markey. MacManus, then a county councillor in Sligo, replaced Matt Carthy when the MEP was elected to the Dáil in the 2020 general election. Remarkably, MacManus had been the sixth substitute on the list, behind four Sinn Féin members also elected as first-time TDs with Carthy, and a party activist who had a baby several days beforehand.

This time MacManus is on the ticket in the European elections in Midlands North West, alongside Michelle Gildernew, MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Behind the two candidates on the replacement list is Donegal-based councillor Jack Murray.

Markey, a Fine Gael county councillor in Louth, replaced Mairead McGuinness as an MEP when she took over as Ireland’s EU commissioner, following the resignation of Phil Hogan in 2020. However, Maria Walsh, who was elected as an MEP in 2019, and Nina Carberry, the former jockey and celebrity candidate, were the Fine Gael nominees selected to run in Midlands North West in June.

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Markey had made no secret of his wish to stand, but it is understood senior party figures had pushed for a two-candidate strategy, with Walsh and Carberry made known to be the preferred pair. In some slim consolation, Markey is third on the replacement list behind the two candidates.

Fianna Fáil Senator Catherine Ardagh is top of her party list in the Dublin constituency, where Barry Andrews is standing for another term. Colm Brophy, TD and former junior minister, is down as Fine Gael’s first replacement for their candidate, Senator Regina Doherty. Fintan Warfield is Sinn Féin’s third substitute behind its two candidates in Dublin, Senator Lynn Boylan and councillor Daithí Doolan. Over in Ireland South Sinn Féin TD Kathleen Funchion is standing for the party with Senator Paul Gavan. A Tipperary councillor, Annemarie Ryan, is third on the party sub list after the candidates.

Political parties have different ways of picking who gets on to the lists. The Greens held selection conventions to choose their replacements. Sinn Féin’s were drawn up at regional level and signed off by its Ard Chomhairle. Fine Gael’s executive council decided whose names they would put down on their candidate replacements lists.

Most sitting TDs, such as Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen, Funchion and McNamara, said if elected to Europe they did not intend to come back to stand for the Dáil in the next election. Peadar Tóibín did not respond to questions about his intentions if he is an MEP when the general election is called.