Greek elections are on the way, but no one party or coalition can solve this country’s problems

When Greeks go to the polls on May 21st they face more than the task of choosing a new government. In the eyes of many voters – especially young people – the revelations following the railway disaster of March 3rd, in which 57 people died, have underlined the poverty of the entire system of governance.

International experts, including the EU Railway Agency, revealed that over the past decades successive Greek governments had been warned of the inefficiency of its railway surveillance and safety systems. It was a disaster waiting to happen, as the railway workers themselves were extremely aware, and gave good warning.

Behind this election is not only the spectre of mismanagement but the issue of relations with Turkey (which is also going to the polls, on May 14th), the economic situation, and the rich-poor divide, exemplified by the clientelist system and the comparative inequality of wage earners.

No single party or coalition can solve these systemic issues in the short term. A recent opinion poll highlighted not only distrust of the big political parties (ruling party New Democracy, Pasok and Syriza) but also of the judicial system and many of the institutions of state. Almost 70 per cent of those polled said they were dissatisfied with Greece’s current democratic processes, which since independence in 1830 have been dominated by dynastic politics.

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These days if you are born into the Mitsotakis, Karamanlis or Papandreou families you already have a political destiny thrust upon you (think de Valera, Lenihan, Barry). As commentator Kostas Kallitsis put it: “If you win the election, you get the state – the state is the winner’s prize.”

Clientelism, which in Ireland Michael D Higgins has done so much to expose, permeates the Greek system, and has done so since the three centuries of Ottoman administration. Nepotism, local mafia, tax avoidance and corruption are commonplace features of a system that works against the interests of the vast majority of citizens.

When Alexis Tsipras and far-left Syriza took power in 2015, it signalled not only the unprecedented advent of a left-wing government in a deeply conservative state, but a temporary halt to dynastic clientelism.

Tsipras hopes for a “progressive coalition” out of this election. He recently referred to the “open wounds that have made the state ineffective”, based on a “culture of favours, family rule, and expropriation of public funds” – all of which are evident in almost every aspect of public life, at both national and local level. Yet Tsipras’ own four years in government failed to address any of these issues in any fundamental way. The poor performance of Syriza in government and its defeat in 2019 restored what to many was the status quo.

Disaffection with the parties that have held power over the past 20 years (New Democracy, Pasok and Syriza) indicates that voters may favour the “protest” parties, which include minorities ranging from the official communists (KKE) to far-right nationalists. A party needs 3 per cent of the national vote to secure seats in parliament, a situation that worries the big parties.

A coalition would be the desired and, indeed, predictable outcome of the system of proportional representation which has its first trial this year. It is in fact unlikely to succeed, because each of the big parties has ruled out powersharing with any of the others. So a second round of elections, in July, is almost certain.

We have seen the usual guff of election gestures and promises – the prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has been diligent on the campaign trail, offering building projects, lower taxes, higher pensions, greater national security, and raising the minimum wage to €667 per month (net).

Paschal Donohoe, as Eurogroup president, provided a positive note to Mitsotakis’ “Resilience and Progress” platform earlier this month, emphasising Greece’s emergence from the financial crisis. But with half the country’s workers now bringing home an average of €820 per month, which puts home ownership out of their reach, and with voter distrust of the way successive governments have run – or failed to run – the country, Mitsotakis’s hopes of an overall majority in either the first or second phases are unrealistic.

The country is distrustful of one-party government, especially where Mitsotakis practises “executive government” with minimal consultation with experts or, indeed, his cabinet colleagues. Alternatively, a coalition, to achieve stability, would involve a compromise of political ambitions and expectations. The capacity of any of the big parties to make such a compromise is doubtful.

Water has already been poured on the Irish idea of a “rotating PM”. If any of the fringe parties attracts voter support and pass the 3 per cent threshold, the prospect of a coalition where the tail wags the dog is a real and disturbing one.