Why Lithuania is willing to risk China’s fury

Lithuania, population 2.8 million, is often the first and most assertive European Union country in taking positions that irk authoritarian regimes, whether Russia, China, or Belarus.

This week, it was regarding Taiwan. Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis praised a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its territory, hinting that Vilnius could follow suit.

Pelosi “has opened the door to Taiwan much wider”, Mr Landsbergis wrote in a tweet, gratefully re-hared by Taiwan’s overseas office in Lithuania. “I am sure other defenders of freedom and democracy will be walking through very soon.”

It came as China prepared to hold large military drills around the island in apparent retaliation for the visit, and is the latest demonstration of the Lithuanian government’s lack of concern about drawing the ire of Beijing or other authoritarian states.

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What’s behind it? “Two hundred years of democratic movements for freedom and independence is like enshrined in our blood,” said a Lithuanian official, referring to the country’s history of resistance to Russian rule.

“The world is changing — for the last five, 10 years authoritarian governments around the world are getting stronger, they’re more aggressive as we see. This is developing in real-time now,” he added.

“Flourishing democracies around the world, we need to stick together,” he said.

Support for democratic movements elsewhere was an election pledge and became part of the government programme of the ruling coalition of the centre-right Homeland Union, conservative-liberal Liberal Movement, and centre/centre-left Freedom Party when it came to power in 2020.

The government has been deepening ties with Taiwan since. It announced it was leaving China’s “17+1″ initiative to deepen co-operation with eastern and central European states, and approved the opening of a Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania — a de facto embassy.

The use of “Taiwanese” in the office’s title caused fury in China, where it was seen as a step too close to recognising the statehood of a place considered in Beijing to be a breakaway province.

Ambassadors were recalled; Lithuania was suddenly delisted from China’s customs system, effectively blocking all exports and imports between the two. Informal secondary sanctions followed, discouraging companies from using Lithuanian suppliers or parts for fear of difficulty exporting to China.

Limited trade ties with China meant the economic impact for Lithuania was modest and offset by some boosted trade with Taiwan, a key exporter of semiconductors — a vital component in electrical devices that have been in shortage worldwide.

There was some grumbling in Brussels that allies were not consulted more beforehand, but the European Commission ultimately backed Vilnius, referring China to the World Trade Organisation “over its discriminatory trade practices against Lithuania”.

It’s not just regarding China. Lithuania warned early about Russia’s designs on Ukraine and is considered a staunch and indispensable ally by Kyiv. It has also acted as a base for the persecuted opposition of Belarus, with which it shares a 680km border, acting as a constant thorn in the side of the dictator-next-door Alexander Lukashenko.

Vilnius is only a three-hour drive from Minsk. It means that Lithuania has had long face-to-face experience with authoritarianism and the security risks it can bring — which is even more vivid now that Belarus has been used by Russian forces as a staging post for the invasion of Ukraine.

Lithuania’s stance “is partly based on our history”, says Linas Kojala, director of the Vilnius think tank the eastern Europe Studies Centre. He points out that the current foreign minister, Landsbergis, is the grandson of a leader of the Lithuanian independence movement.

“Lithuania was the first country to break out of the Soviet Union and declare independence. So there is this strong feeling of a young democracy which needed support 30 years ago with regards to our independence movement, and now supporting others who are fighting for the same values,” he says.

At the same time, this is a strategic calculation. Like all small countries, Lithuania relies on adherence to the rule of law for protection against larger neighbours. Speaking up is also a way of “introducing Lithuania to larger audience”, he says. ”We are a small country so we are not always noticed.”

It’s a strategy with risks, and there is domestic debate about what the costs could be, including economically.

“We’ll probably need to see in the future whether the cost benefit analysis is fully on the side of the benefit. But of course, the thinking is that the benefits outweigh the costs.”