New Zealand swings to the right in post-Ardern era

New Zealand’s Labour Party has suffered a humbling defeat after it lost half its parliamentary seats compared with Jacinda Ardern’s triumph in 2020.

As counting continued, the centre-right National party, led by Christopher Luxon, was set to lead the country with support from the libertarian ACT party.

The swing to the right, just three years after “Jacindamania” swept the country, exposed the fragility of a policy agenda that concentrated on issues such as climate change once rising inflation and a cost-of-living crisis confronted New Zealand voters.

The conservative coalition was on course for a majority when Chris Hipkins, Labour’s incumbent prime minister, conceded on Saturday night. “I gave it my all to turn the tide of history but alas it was not enough,” he said.

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However, so-called special votes – cast outside a voter’s home seat or by those not on the electoral roll, which are counted later and typically skew left – could mean Mr Luxon needs extra support to form a government.

That could let Winston Peters, leader of the populist New Zealand First party, play kingmaker once again. He captured 6 per cent of the vote.

The swing to the right was notable but Labour also lost ground to left-wing rivals including the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, which advocates for indigenous rights.

In the Auckland constituency of Mount Albert, a seat vacated by Ms Ardern and once held by former prime minister Helen Clark, Labour held on for a narrow win. However, other seats fell in rapid succession, including in Hauraki-Waikato, where Nanaia Mahuta, Labour’s foreign minister and the longest serving female MP in the country, lost to a 21-year-old Te Pāti Māori rival.

Grant Robertson, finance minister, told broadcaster 1News that his government had struggled to combat the electorate’s “time-for-a-change” mood.

Bryce Edwards, a political analyst at Victoria University of Wellington, said the election result represented a move to vote out the incumbent Labour government rather than a successful campaign by the National party.

Mr Edwards said the two-term Labour government – in power for six years, half of it with an outright majority – had failed to deliver on its promise. He said the unusually large election victory in 2020 under Ms Ardern had proved to be “a blessing and a curse” for her government: it gave a strong mandate for reform but led to a sense of complacency. “They squandered it,” Mr Edwards said.

Mr Hipkins was given a long run-up to the election after Ms Ardern stood down as prime minister in January. He sought to reset Labour’s policy agenda to what he called “bread-and-butter” issues such as the cost of living.

Ms Ardern, who had near-celebrity status as a politician on the world stage, saw her popularity evaporate domestically, with lengthy lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic costing her support.

Mr Luxon said he would scrap unpopular Labour policie including the establishment of a separate health body for the Maori population. He also pledged tax cuts and a crackdown on crime.

Mr Luxon (53) is a former Air New Zealand chief executive and also worked for Unilever. He is something of a blank canvas for voters, given he has only served one term in parliament.

Mr Edwards said that served Mr Luxon well during an unconvincing election campaign because he was not seen as a career politician. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023