Growing Chinese influence on ex-Soviet republics reinforces domestic security agenda

As G7 leaders prepare to meet in the Japanese city of Hiroshima this weekend, China’s Xi Jinping will be hosting the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for the first, in-person China-Central Asia summit.

The two-day meeting, which opens on Thursday in the northwestern Chinese city of Xi’an, reflects Beijing’s growing influence in the five former Soviet republics that became independent in 1991.

The summit is expected to focus on energy, economic development and security cooperation, with the leaders signing a number of agreements. But in the background is the question of the five Central Asian states’ relationship with Moscow as well as their deepening links with Beijing.

Kazakhstan and China are expected to sign a deal to allow 30-day visa-free travel between the two countries and Kyrgyztan is seeking a similar arrangement

More than 2,100 years ago, when it was called Chang’an, Xi’an was the starting point of the Silk Road that ran east to west and connected Asia to Europe. In 2013, Xi proposed an “economic belt across the Silk Road” in Kazakhstan which later, along with the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, grew into the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure project involving more than 150 countries.

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In September last year, Xi chose Central Asia for his first trip outside China since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and this week’s summit is the first major, multilateral diplomatic event China has hosted since the end of its zero-Covid policy. Although the United States remains an important player in the region and the European Union accounts for much of its foreign investment, neither has pursued as focused or sustained a strategy there as China’s.

The five Central Asian states are vitally important sources of oil, gas and minerals for China, while Chinese investment has been crucial for the region’s development. Trade between China and the five countries was worth more than $70 billion in 2022 and its volume grew by more than 22 per cent in the first two months of this year, according to China’s commerce ministry.

Kazakhstan and China are expected to sign a deal to allow 30-day visa-free travel between the two countries and Kyrgyztan is seeking a similar arrangement. And there may be announcements about big infrastructure projects, including a long-discussed proposal for a railway linking China with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

China’s interest in the economic development of the region has long been linked with its domestic security concerns in the western province of Xinjiang. China’s oppression targeting Xinjiang’s Uyghur community, which a United Nations report last year said could amount to crimes against humanity, was one part of its response to unrest that included a succession of deadly terrorist incidents in 2013 and 2014.

When they have sought military assistance, Central Asian leaders have looked to Moscow rather than Beijing and Russia sent 2,300 troops to Kazakhstan in January 2022 to help quell an uprising

Beijing’s other strategy was to make Xinjiang more prosperous by channelling investment towards the province, a plan that also required its neighbours in Central Asia to flourish. As China’s security footprint has expanded through the region with joint military exercises and the construction of bases, it has remained focused on domestic security.

When they have sought military assistance, Central Asian leaders have looked to Moscow rather than Beijing and Russia sent 2,300 troops to Kazakhstan in January 2022 to help quell an uprising. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the following month shook the five Central Asian states, none of which expressed support for the attack on the sovereignty of another former Soviet republic.

Like China, they have not condemned the invasion and have continued to trade with Russia in such a way that has led to accusations of circumventing western sanctions. And all five Central Asian leaders went to Moscow this month for the annual Victory Day parade, the first time they attended in recent years.