World Cup plans can wait - this is a Test with Wales

ON RUGBY:IRELAND-WALES always has a certain frisson. The comments made by Warren Gatland last year might have been worded a little more clearly – though for sure some of them were taken out of context or misinterpreted – but in any event they almost certainly reflected a feeling within the Welsh camp. They'd become heartily sick and tired of losing to teams from Ireland, Leinster and Munster.

That indicated a level of admiration as well as enmity within Wales, and the Lions tour probably went some way to smoothing any residual bitterness. Indeed, Gatland’s comments probably forced them to make an extra effort with each other, beginning with Paul O’Connell’s phone call to the Welsh head coach cum Lions forward coach.

As the two main suppliers to the Lions, the Irish and Welsh didn’t have any option but to get on with each other, and it was clear long before the end of the tour that there had been plenty of bonding. Unsolicited, the likes of Mike Phillips, Jamie Roberts and Stephen Jones all spoke warmly of the Irish contingent, and especially O’Connell, who Martyn Williams described as the best captain he had ever played under.

Quite a few will resume hostilities on Saturday, as they’ve been doing here and there in the Magners League. It’s a massive match in its own right, with both squads retaining the bulk of the respective Grand Slam winners of the last two years.

In essence, what this season’s Six Nations has shown is that any of the four main contenders can beat each other on a given day, and that Italy and Scotland have become even more obdurate and difficult to beat. Lest we forget, Ireland won five tough, bruising encounters to win the Grand Slam last season, and the toughest of the quintet was the finale in Cardiff.

And, lest we also forget, Declan Kidney keeps reminding us that Wales are the only side Ireland have yet to beat in the Six Nations at Croke Park.

It’s a funny old fixture, Ireland v Wales, traditionally about the most unpredictable in the last couple of decades that Ireland have been involved in. Quite often there’s no rhyme or reason to the events as they unfold. In winning eight of the last 10 meetings – including a 2003 World Cup warm-up match – Ireland have enjoyed a distinct edge in recent times; as they did in the 1990s, when they won six and drew one of the 10 Five Nations clashes.

However, the latest run of three successive away wins in the fixture also maintains a trend which dates back to the early 1980s. In the last 26 championship meetings between the countries, there have been just six home wins, one draw and a scarcely credible 19 away wins. Go figure.

In this respect, there’s no fixture remotely like this, and there’s no rational explanation for it either. The familiarity between the players in latter times, due primarily to the onset of the Magners League, cannot be deemed a factor given the league wasn’t around in the 1980s or 1990s. It’s just one of those curiosities that sport throws up, and neither side has been fearful of travelling to the other’s lair for some time.

Wales could, as Kidney also keeps reminding us, be arriving in Croke Park with three wins from three, and no doubt Gatland still reflects ruefully on the three intercept tries Wales have coughed up against England and France. The theory goes that France eased up and put up the shutters to protect their 20-point lead in Cardiff, but one ventures that were it not for Shane Williams’ pass being picked off by Francois Trinh-Duc on half-time, Wales may well have completed another remarkable comeback win.

It’s been their misfortune to lose Lions Test players in Mike Phillips, Gareth Jenkins, Matthew Rees and Alun Wyn-Jones, and it’s certainly not been the coaches’ fault that Andy Powell has been left to lower his golf handicap on weekends such as these.

Powell may be something of a one-trick pony, but it’s a good trick on its day, and without him and the other Lions, their pack lacked ball-carriers against France, with the honourable exception of Bradley Davies. Without that, and left to play catch-up, their array of backline game-breakers have had to trust their innate footballing instincts. And no one plays catch-up better than these Welsh.

The expectation in the Welsh media is that Gatland and his coaches may inject some ball-carrying by restoring Gareth Delve at number eight and switching Ryan Jones to blindside, with Jonathan Thomas reverting to secondrow. This may be in part to counter the excellent Irish backrow.

But the Welsh regions don’t provide Gatland and co with many options here. Go through their regions and most of the go-to-ball carriers are from the Southern Hemisphere: Filo Tiatia, Xavier Rush, Jerry Collins, Marty Holah, David Lyons, etc. All of them are experienced, leadership figures too.

Ireland have had to dig into their reserves more than last year as well, which in the long term is good for both countries’ World Cup plans. There remain a projected 18 games between now and the World Cup, starting with Saturday’s match and incorporating next summer’s three games, four next autumn, next year’s Six Nations and possibly four warm-up games.

There remains a compelling argument to leave some of the thirtysomething front-liners at home next summer, and, in any event, Kidney is likely to take the view that there is ample time to invest in fringe players such as Tony Buckley or Tom Court. For the moment there is a Test match against Wales, not to mention a Triple Crown and, at a push, the Six Nations title to play for.

This time last year Kidney made four changes to the team to play Scotland. But that was after picking an unchanged team for three games, a luxury which he may never have again. Thus, after several enforced changes already, and having used 28 players in three games, it’s likely he will leave the team that beat England at Twickenham intact, with the main source of conversation within the selection group liable to concern fullback, given that Rob Kearney is now back in the frame.

Kearney was the man in possession last season and this, but hasn’t played since the first half of the French game, whereas Geordan Murphy was well nigh faultless in Twickenham and maintained that form in Leicester’s win over London Irish last Saturday.

The one change to the 22, therefore, may be Kearney’s return on the bench at the expense of Andrew Trimble.

gthornley@irishtimes.com