Win of substance essential

TODAY IS a landmark. Twelve months on from Ireland’s comprehensive victory over Wales at Croke Park, the last vestiges of the Grand Slam success from 2009.

There were a lot of positives from that performance, especially the tries. Tomás O’Leary’s lung-busting run in after a well-controlled Paul O’Connell driving maul and an impressive backline attack finished off by Keith Earls. Again, born out of great lineout possession.

Sure, Wales looked poor, but that was as much down to Ireland denying them the scope to play.

In the year since the game has gone through a global renaissance. It has opened up, starting with the expansive, exhilarating and engrossing Tri-Nations last summer, while the Six Nations just a few months earlier continued to be dominated by slavish loyalty to a kicking, territorial approach.

The result has been that Ireland has been badly left behind in the thinking of how the game can be played by the three Southern Hemisphere powers and England (the French are excluded as we know by now that they will always bring a mix of brilliance and frustration).

Was it a dollop of arrogance that denied Ireland the ability to adjust to new law interpretations? Possibly. Was it the lingering safety of the comfort zone constructed by the success garnered from playing a certain way and winning a Grand Slam? I would say definitely yes.

The OMG (Oh My God) moment came last November against South Africa. The Boks arrived in Dublin without 17 frontline players, prompting the local media to ponder the margin of victory rather than consider the chance of the World Champions actually prevailing.

Evidence of a collective arrogance? I think so.

The really worrying development on that same day was the manner in which New Zealand, Australia and England were endeavouring to go about their business. They identified the shift in the game months beforehand, improving accuracy at the breakdown, counter-attacking and kicking strategies to keep ball in play, thereby decreasing the number of set-plays.

In direct contrast, the rules of the breakdown that had served Ireland so well in recent times were gone forever. The penny finally dropped: Oh My God, we’re miles behind these teams.

When Australia and New Zealand were pushing the boundaries of their traditional approach in November 2009, Ireland were standing still. Really, that means they were going backwards.

It has been a desperate game of catch-up ever since. Teams chasing big scores tend to make errors. Here’s a scary statistic: in the three Six Nations outings to date Ireland have conceded 33 points off penalties, only kicking six points in return. Eleven opposing penalties converted (and remember the wayward Italian shots) to just two penalties between the uprights is a sure sign they are trying to force the game.

The pressure of catch-up rugby has taken its toll on the Irish coaching ticket. For the first time in Declan Kidney’s three-season reign there is, in the eyes of the media, a perceived divide between players and coaching staff.

Mistakes in how the replacements are used have also contributed to a talented group being down on self-belief. The questionable off-field leadership means it is only human nature in any group dynamics for individuals to speak out.

And still, there are plenty of positives. The players and management have made some strides, particularly evident in attack from the seven tries to three against so far. Despite defeat to France (because of the concession of so many kickable penalties) the three-to-one try count means it will always be seen as a game that got away.

Conceding only one try per outing also tells us the defensive system is largely in good working order.

Perhaps the most notable positive has been the exposure of more players to the Test rugby environment. Due mainly to injuries, come the World Cup in September positions like fullback, outhalf, wing, number eight, prop and hooker will have proven cover options. This has never been the case for Ireland going into a World Cup.

We have talked enough about the coaches insulating themselves inside a comfort zone, but the process of climbing out of the current hole has also been evident. I am convinced once the internal disciplinary issue is corrected (and word is Kidney drew a line in the sand last week), then an 80-minute performance will follow.

Against Scotland we saw them hit the high notes for an hour.

If Ireland cut out the double-figure penalties in range of their posts they can beat anyone in the world. If they manage this today, I believe they will belt the Welsh. Six tries is not out of the question. But if they give Wales six penalty shots they will lose.

Wales have been standing still, certainly in an offensive capacity, for three years. I have been very disappointed with the progress under Warren Gatland. It reminds me of the ACT Brumbies in Australia. They seem to like their systems too much and the wealth of talent has suffered by the failure to change things.

I will say it right now: Ireland will beat England next week. My only fear is that a Triple Crown will allow the coaching staff to paper over the cracks. Ease back into that dreaded comfort zone.

After the endeavours of recent weeks to chase the top-tier nations – one hopes it is not too late – it would be a real shame if six games out from the World Cup there is another diversion off the course Ireland must go down. They are not far off clicking. If they do, it will be electric, but it is up to them.

The day to deliver has arrived. A win of substance seems essential.