Who will blink first, England or France?

England's capacity to produce the performance that materialised against Australia was probably flagged a little in their victory over Tonga and, to a lesser extent, Samoa. They demonstrated in those pool games that the team dynamic had improved and, coupled with key players returning from injury, it made them more potent.

The confidence fillip they will have received from the victory over the Wallabies will make them dangerous opposition for France, primarily because they possess the wherewithal up front to make life difficult for the World Cup hosts.

They obliterated the Aussie scrum and bossed the breakdown, denying their opponents the quick ruck ball and platform required to launch a superior back line. England won't be able to do that to France, but they will target the breakdown and aggressively pursue any opportunity to counter-ruck.

They know that to win this match they are going to have to deny the French quick ruck ball. The identikit for an English victory is a quick start to the game, grabbing the lead, and a strong defence. They'll have to take every chance presented and basically sow the seeds of doubt in French minds, introducing anxiety to French patterns, much as Argentina managed.

A conversation with a member of the English squad suggested that they were a little surprised by the manner of their victory over Australia. They are positive about their chances today, and that's important. They have a smattering of experience throughout the team, and, in a tight game - which I expect it to be - it could be crucial.

Both teams have lost a game in this tournament but have gone on to recover impressively and enter this match confident and upbeat: it'll be about who blinks first.

It'll be interesting to note how the French players recover physically from their clash with New Zealand. It was a bruising encounter, and while that won't be apparent in the opening throes, its legacy could be clear in the closing stages.

Obviously home advantage is a massive factor, worth probably a 10-point start, provided France turn up and play. If England can establish a foothold and stay close on the scoreboard, then they can negate some of the partisan crowd's influence. If Brian Ashton's team concede a couple of scores early, then the mountain will assume Mount Everest proportions.

England know they have exceeded expectations going into the tournament and that will bring its own satisfaction, but there can be no complacency. They can't just park their ambition because it's great to be in a semi-final. Given the experienced core of players, I don't expect this to happen.

France, in contrast, shoulder the heavier burden, an expectation that has grown exponentially as they recovered from their opening-match setback. They are at home, against a team they have twice beaten in pre-World Cup matches, and the external pressure to succeed will be massive.

France got it tactically right against the All Blacks, content to punt for territory, chase and not take too many risks. When the chances presented themselves, they took them. They were smarter than New Zealand and in that second half showed great discipline in not conceding penalties.

England have several players performing superbly, not least scrumhalf Andy Gomarsall, who has been the perfect link between backs and forwards. He's given Jonny Wilkinson time and space to orchestrate the attacking patterns, and if those halfbacks can continue in that vein, supplied by the pack once again, then England will go close. France should edge the contest, but an English victory wouldn't constitute a major surprise.

It's impossible not to admire the way in which Argentina have negotiated their passage to the semi-final. They have played to their strengths and, to use a football analogy, have ground out victories; a kind of 1-0 attitude built on sound basics and a limited, kicking-orientated attack.

What's been great to see is the reaction in Argentina. I thought the fact the kick-off for a match between Boca Juniors and River Plate was changed to accommodate people interested in viewing their quarter-final against Scotland was brilliant. It's not about the fact it was a rugby match, but just that sense of pride in a national team.

That's what enjoying sport should be about.

It's difficult to get excited by the way they play. They're good at what they do and rely on a few key players to control the game, but I saw evidence in the Scotland match that the semi-final might be a match too far in terms of their winning run. The Scots had chances to win near the end and just didn't take them.

Argentina kick the ball more than any team, have taken on more drop-goal attempts than any other team and largely rely on their set-piece excellence and defence.

South Africa should be able to match them in the forward battle and I think that will be the catalyst for a Springbok victory.

The South Africans will look to put pace on the game and use their superior speed out wide, while the Pumas will look to slow it down and turn the match into a set-piece extravaganza. Agustin Pichot is a canny operator and he'll look to take the sting out of the game.

I can see the Boks winning by about 20 points if they can keep the tempo high: that's the key to beating the Pumas. France hosting South Africa in the final would be a cracking occasion, and probably the best match from a neutral perspective.