Unlikely defeat will have no real impact

RACING:THERE IS a school of thought that Camelot has everything to lose and little or nothing to gain in this evening's Irish Derby. After all, what will beating up another bunch of three-year-olds prove when we already know he is the outstanding colt of his year? The only story will be if by some chance he gets stuffed. How many zeroes might that knock off his value? The answer is probably none.

“We’re talking about a horse capable of winning a Guineas at a mile, despite being by Montjeu, before then going on to win the Epsom Derby. He’s as good looking a horse as you’ll see. And he looks a ready-made replacement for his sire, who died earlier this year,” says well-known Irish bloodstock agent Ross Doyle. “I would say he is already rock-solid in terms of stud value.”

What that value might be right now is something plenty of bloodstock experts are unable or unwilling to speculate on. That is partly to do with a fear of saying something that might incur the displeasure of John Magnier’s Coolmore Stud. It is also to do with the imprecision of the question.

“It doesn’t matter who the horse is,” says another agent. “A horse’s worth is what anyone is willing to pay for it.”

Coolmore paid out €525,000 for Camelot as a yearling. As an unbeaten Group One winning two-year-old that has gone on to win the two classics that matter most, he is pretty much the idealised proposition his name suggests for a remorseless commercial empire.

Only one other bloodstock outfit on the planet has the financial wherewithal to contemplate purchasing such a beast and since that is Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley operation, the chances of Magnier selling the pride-and-joy to his arch-rival is as likely as America flogging Alaska back to the Russians.

In that sense, Camelot is priceless.

But it is possible to estimate what he is worth in terms of possible earnings once his racing career is over, and they are a helluva lot more than the near-700,000 grand first prize today.

If Camelot starts a breeding career at a €80,000 fee and covers 200 mares a year over four years, then that puts an approximate value of over €60 million on him.

Then there is the matter of additional Southern Hemisphere revenue if he is shuttled to Australia or New Zealand as well.

In 2009 Sea The Stars was reckoned to have a value of about €70 million when he retired to stud. He operated this year at a fee of €85,000.

His half-brother Galileo, who stands at Coolmore, is probably the most coveted sire in the world, so valuable his fee is private, although believed to be in the region of €150,000. That sort of money makes the €1.25 million Irish Derby prize-fund look like small beer.

“If you or I were John Magnier, we’d have to get an enormous sum to part with him,” says the Newmarket-based agent, Tom Goff. “But Camelot is only half way through his three-year-old career. His value now is unquantifiable, especially if he goes on to be unbeaten in say the Irish Derby and the Juddmonte, and then wins the Triple Crown.”

No horse since Nijinsky has completed the English Triple Crown of Guineas-Derby-St Leger and the idea of sending Camelot to Doncaster in September would normally be anathema to Coolmore.

In bloodstock business terms stamina is cherished about as much as the Greek tax-collection system. Though Magnier and his syndicate partners appear to be softening their attitude, apparently relishing the chance to pin the label “Triple Crown Winner” to Camelot.

In fact should Camelot somehow lose today, the real impact could be on any possibility of their being a pre-Leger clash with the remarkable Frankel at York in August, a prospect to quicken the pulse of even the most jaded racing person. In reality the chances of such a race happening are remote, even if Camelot wins by the length of the straight today.

“What’s the point of meeting Frankel and getting stuffed?” is the view of one industry professional. Another points out that swerving Frankel and going for the Leger instead will garner plenty of kudos for both horse and connections, while at the same time avoiding the prospect of a dispiriting defeat against a horse many rate among the best ever seen.

However, the tantalising temptation must be to dream of what might happen if Camelot were to clash with Frankel and upset the older horse.

Then any questions about value really would be unquantifiable. Because Camelot’s worth and reputation would rocket so stratospherically the old rules might have to be torn up to quantify both.