Top dogs a hurdle to revival

One of the forthcoming attractions at Wembley next January is Elvis - The Concert, which may be taking optimism a bit far

One of the forthcoming attractions at Wembley next January is Elvis - The Concert, which may be taking optimism a bit far. London Welsh, otherwise known as the national rugby team, take centre stage this afternoon hoping for a similar resurrection.

The Welsh Rugby Union's advertising campaign - Guide Me O Thou Great Redeemer and all that - may have suggested that the new coach Graham Henry has divine powers. Henry knows, though, that, back in the real world, his team are not so much Hound Dogs as very much the underdogs.

It is not just the weight of history that is against Wales - they have failed to beat the Springboks in 11 games since 1906 - it is the present that is so disturbing.

South Africa kick off their Grand Slam tour of Britain having won their last 14 Tests and the southern hemisphere's Tri-Nations tournament. In their last 10 games they have run in 51 tries. When the Springboks met a weakened Wales in Pretoria last June they won 96-13. Top dogs, indeed.

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While England begin their World Cup qualifying campaign with a game against the Dutch which is as low-key as the Polders, Henry has been given a mountain to climb as the New Zealander begins a five-year contract worth £1.25 mil lion. Henry admitted this week that 25 to 1 odds against his team giving him a winning start were realistic. He knows he is no alchemist, whatever the advertising jingles may say.

A look across Offa's Dyke at the English Premiership would confirm Henry's fears. A list of the players surplus to Springbok requirements nowadays includes Joel Stransky, Fritz van Heerden, Francois Pienaar, Brendan Venter, Garry Pagel and Marius Hurter. Stransky, whose skills at fly-half have helped propel Leicester to the top this autumn, has no doubts about the current South African team's place in the pantheon.

"I can see England giving a good account of themselves if they play to their true potential," he said yesterday. "But I don't think Scotland will pose too many problems and, while both Wales and Ireland should be competitive, you would have to say the Grand Slam is well within the Springboks' grasp.

"All four countries are going to find themselves up against a fantastic rugby team, hungry for success and who have a style about everything they do. On top of that, they've got a wonderful coach in Nick Mallett, someone who excels at his job and who commands respect - he is a very likeable guy."

Wales' supporters know, too, that the size of the task is like climbing Table Mountain in a pair of carpet slippers. Yesterday afternoon less than 50,000 of the 80,000 tickets had been sold. The last time Wales were in London it was to suffer the worst defeat in the history of the Five Nations when France beat them 51-0 in April.

In Wales' favour, they have made a dozen changes from the side beaten in Pretoria. The wing Daffyd James, the centre Mark Taylor and the flanker Colin Charvis are the only survivors from that fateful day.

Neil Jenkins, who needs six points today to reach 600 in Tests, will be around to kick anything within range and the Quinnell brothers will bolster a pack which looked so lightweight in the Five Nations.

Realistically, though, a score similar to the 42-7 defeat here by the All Blacks a year ago will be the best Henry can hope for.