Statistics suggest Tier Two nations closing gap on Tier One

IRB REVIEW 2011 WORLD CUP:INTERNATIONAL RUGBY Board interpretation of a statistical review of the recent Rugby World Cup suggests Tier Two nations are closing the gap on those in Tier One and that there were less runaway matches during the first phase of the competition.

However, the 18 highest scores between teams since 1987 had Tier Two nations on the receiving side, the biggest score being New Zealand’s 145 haul against Japan in 1995.

The stat-attack also shows the average difference in the score between teams dropped from 45 points in the 2003 RWC and 41 points in the 2007 RWC to just 20 points in this year’s tournament, or half previous years. Smaller winning margins, say the governing body, extended across the whole tournament between the higher and lower tier sides.

In the most detailed Rugby World Cup statistical analysis ever taken by the IRB, the report provides an analysis of the performances of the teams in all aspects of play, from scoring, impact of penalties on results, source and location of tries and their timing, ball in play and possession, passing, rucks and mauls, kick-offs and restarts, lineouts, free-kicks, penalties and cards.

It will make for interesting reading for statistical nerds, but, for spectators, the IRB believe the results have made the game more attractive – with scrums, lineouts and kicking reduced from 2007 and passes increased, highlighting an emphasis on running rugby.

In almost 80 per cent of matches, the team scoring the most tries won the match and in only one 2011 match did the team scoring the fewest tries win because of penalty goals.

Ireland’s Keith Earls was joint second highest try scorer with five, one behind Vincent Clerc and England’s Chris Ashton. Ronan O’Gara was fourth on the points list with 44, Morne Steyn tops on 62.

This year’s competition also confirmed any scrum problems were concentrated on matches between Tier One teams, with collapses and penalties in matches played between Tier Two teams being substantially fewer.

The report features an analysis of how the tournament has evolved since Rugby World Cup 1995 to become a game of fewer set-pieces with the ball in play for longer. From a time when there were as many set-pieces as breakdowns, there are now four times as many breakdowns as scrums and lineouts combined.

But the statistics also show the percentage of points scored by tries was marginally less this year (58 per cent) than in 2003 and 1999 (59 per cent).

There were also fewer tries and fewer penalty goals per game in New Zealand than in any of the previous six tournaments.

The average number of tries per game in 2011 was 5.5 compared to seven in 1987 and 6.9 in the 2003 RWC. In that regard this year’s event had the lowest average number of tries per game than all tournaments but that in 1991. The average number of 47 points per game was also lower in 2011 than every year except 1991, when the figure was 42. And to keep the old school happy 190 tries were scored by backs (73 per cent) and 72 tries were scored by forwards (27 per cent). With Ireland that broke down as 11 back-line tries and four from the pack. On Irish set-pieces, the scrum was 88 per cent successful and lineout 91 per cent.

Comparison 2011 with 1995

Ball in play has increased by 33 per cent.

Passes have gone from 179 per match to 263.

Rucks/mauls up from 69 per match to 162 per match.

Kicks have down from 75 to 41 per match.

Scrums down from 27 to 17.

Lineouts down from 37 to 24.

Weekend Rugby Fixtures

Friday

RaboDirect Pro 12– Ulster v Scarlets, Ravenhill 7.05pm; Connacht v Treviso, Sportsground 7.30pm; Edinburgh v Aironi, Murrayfield 7.30pm; Leinster v Cardiff Blues, RDS 8.05pm.

Saturday

International– Wales v Australia, Cardiff, 2.30pm.

RaboDirect Pro 12– Ospreys v Munster, Liberty Stadium 4.30pm.

All Ireland League: Division One A(2.30pm unless stated) – Cork Constitution v Young Munster, Temple Hill; Garryowen v Blackrock College, Dooradoyle; Old Belvedere v Dolphin, Anglesea Road; Shannon v Lansdowne; St Mary's College v Clontarf.

Division One B– Ballymena v Ballynahinch, Eaton Park; Bruff v Belfast Harlequins, Kilballyowen Park; Buccaneers v Dungannon, Dubarry Park; Galwegians v UCC, Crowley Park; UCD v UL Bohemians, Belfield.

Division Two A– Clonakilty v Greystones, The Vale; DLSP v Corinthians, Kirwan Park; Dublin University v City of Derry, College Park; Instonians v Bective Rangers, Shaws Bridge; Malone v Midleton, Gibson Park; QUB v Old Crescent, Dub Lane; Seapoint v Old Wesley, Kilbogget Park; Thomond v Terenure College, Liam Fitzgerald Park.

Division Two B– Ards v Cashel, Hamilton Park; Armagh v Boyne, Palace Grounds; Highfield v Naas, Woodleigh Park; Nenagh Ormond v Navan, New Ormond Park; Rainy OB v Banbridge, Hatrick Park; Sundays Well v Connemara, Musgrave Park; Suttonians v NUIM Barnhall, JJ McDowell Memorial Grounds; Wanderers v Sligo, Aviva Stadium.

Sunday

RaboDirect PRO 12– Dragons v Warriors, Rodney Parade 4.30pm.