Statistics point to Montgomerie

OVER an example were needed of the damned lies that statistics usually are, it is in the mathematical assertion that if Colin Montgomerie "plays his usual, his average game, he will win the US PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club this week.

"Americans are, of course, bats about stats, and among those that are attached to this week's event is one which tells us that, of all the people who have ever played in the USPGA Championship, the man who has made the most money per stroke on average is the aforementioned Montgomerie.

Over the course of 14 rounds he averaged 70.43 per round and $234.38 for each of those strokes, to be top in the category that matters most in this country money made. He also possesses the best score of anyone over the last 54 holes of the championship, at 14 under, which is hardly surprising because, with the man who beat him in a play off last year, Steve Elkington, he shares the best 72 hole total as well 271, 17 under par.

So, statistically, the hot, Scot has only got to turn up to win.

More realistically, of course, life is not like that, and certainly not in golf. Montgomerie is going to have to play at his best, and probably have to produce at least one round substantially under par, just to get into contention, for this is an exceedingly strong field.

The list of possible winners is longer than usual this week, and while it certainly includes Montgomerie, the names of Nick Faldo, Corey Pavin, Ernie Els Greg Norman, Nick Price, Mark O'Meara, Loren Roberts Steve Stricker, Frank Nobilo and Fred Couples also come readily to mind.

The last named has an extra reason for wanting to do well. Yesterday he announced that he was a major partner in a group of investors, that includes Clint Eastwood, Pete Sampras and Jack Nicholson, who have bought the club making company, Lynx, whose equipment Couples has long used. The overall cost was 30 million, but if things turn out for Couples as they did for Greg Norman, he will not be displeased. The Australian invested a couple of million dollars in the Cobra company and earlier this year sold out his shares for $40 million.

Norman has been in something of a how could that have happened slump since his last round loss to Faldo in the US Masters, but a joint seventh finish in the British Open at Lytham has got him interested again, and he now says of Augusta. "It would take a far stronger bullet than that to stop me.

He went on, about this Jack, Nicklaus designed course. "I like his courses, but the guys should score well here. Low scores are a strong possibility."

Tom Watson, recovered from the shoulder injury that caused him to withdraw from the British Open is, of course, chasing the one major he has not won.

He feels the course may play easily for those in form, principally because the greens are relatively flat and will have to be kept soft so that they do not die in the extreme heat. "Given soft greens and fairly wide fairways I think you'll see some low scores here," he said.

Montgomerie does not entirely agree. He likes the course there are 18 very strong holes, very tough" but thinks that the early player consensus that around 15 under will win is exaggerated.

"It's surprising how narrow the fairways get on Thursday morning," he said. "And when they start hiding the pins and the greens start getting firmer, I think it will be sort of Irish 21/2 under every day would be very good scoring."

Montgomerie was asked if he, could get up using the regular route and just laughed. "This is Colin Montgomerie sitting here," he said, "not John Daly. I hit a good drive and had 320 yards to the green so, no, I can't get up."

The one factor that is going to affect everyone in Louisville (pron: Luhvul) in Kentucky (pron: tuckeh) home of the Derby (pron: Dirby) in August is the unspeakable weather. It has been, and is forecast to continue to be in the high 90s, with humidity at the same level. Not even the locals like it, and on Tuesday the first aid tent, despite the presence of frequent, and free, watering holes on the course, treated 51 people for heat related difficulties.

Montgomerie is better able to cope with it now that he has lost 30 lb, but he still has problems. "After about 15 holes my concentration started to go, and because of that the rhythm goes and your swing tends to be quicker. You can end up in a lake or something just because of the pure heat."

He tries to counteract it by using one size larger glove "because the hands swell" and by using light coloured clothing and a wide brimmed hat, but recognises that ultimately it is just a question of battling on.

,He was asked how big a thing winning a major would be for him, and did he think about it, for instance, when practising? "I don't think about it all the time, no, he said. "But I can see Steve Elkington's putt drop in the hole now, as clear as a bell, and that's a year ago.

It is rather longer than that since Muhammad Ali was at his best, and similarly Jack Nicklaus. But yesterday the two met on Valhalla's ninth green, Ali, apparently has wanted to meet Nicklaus for some time, It was principally a photo opportunity, and a sad one at that, for although Ali pretended to spar, and Nicklaus to shy away, there was no dialogue between the two. These days the Louisville Lip finds conversation too much for him.