Statistics point to German victory

Tonight in Dortmund, one of the most politically and historically loaded confrontations of the tournament takes place. During its heyday as a steel and coal giant of the Ruhr, this sprawling, unlovely city drew Polish workers like magnets, and tonight their descendants will gather in the city for what seems like a fated match for the enigmatic and unstable representatives of the Polish game.

Their meeting with the German hosts had long been identified as one of the likely flashpoints, with reports of a strongly militant faction of Polish support hoping to inflict some kind of Kristallnacht upon the city. Because of that, there is likely to be a heavy police presence around the stadium and the fan festival sight on Friedenplatz, with the most hostile clashes occurring on the pitch.

It is a crucial night for Germany's striker Miroslav Klose, whose brace against Costa Rica in the opening game places him in the early running for the golden boot. Born to Polish parents in Opole in 1978 - right in the middle of the renaissance period in football for Poland - he has lived in Germany since the age of eight and spent yesterday morning pledging his devotion to the Fatherland.

"My aunt and uncle still live in Poland and I go there regularly but I will be singing the German anthem on Wednesday night. I don't even know the Polish one," he said.

If Jürgen Klinsmann starts Lukas Podolski again, it will leave Germany with an entirely Polish-born strike force, an irony that will not be lost on either set of fans. However, the main source of talk for the host nation centres around the belated introduction of their captain and folk hero, Michael Ballack.

The Stamford Bridge-bound Ballack had insisted he was fit enough to start against Costa Rica but was forced to sit out that prestigious opening game in what was perceived as a quiet statement of authority by Klinsmann. The exciting nature of the game and the comfortable German victory glossed over any potential fallout from that decision and instead the host nation can look forward to a comfortable passage to the second round with a victory over what could be 90 minutes of genuine attrition.

Poland's faltering beginning against Ecuador deepened the puzzlement and disquiet of the country's football fans. Disillusioned by many of the decisions of coach Pawel Janas and critical of the apparent tactical vulnerabilities that allowed the South Americans to score twice, Janas comes into this match experience with the kind of heat generated by the Dortmund coal furnaces in decades gone by.

At last night's press conference, in a sweltering bunker of a room behind Borussia's mammoth stadium, tempers snapped between the team and media, with a Polish journalist taking exception to defender Michal Zewlakow's observation that it was easier to sit writing articles and drinking coffee than to play in the World Cup.

"Maybe I am sorry I said that," he relented, "but we did not play as badly against Ecuador as all of you seemed to think."

But it is hard to put a handsome gloss on 0-2, and the Poles are now in a situation reminiscent of four years ago, when they needed a win against Portugal to keep their World Cup alive. A draw here is the minimal requirement but Janas has already declared they will have to atone for their opening loss with a victory. He was predictably evasive about how that might be achieved.

There is slight encouragement to be had in the fact that Klinsmann, ever the iconoclast, has managed to produce a German team that leaks goals - as Paulo Wanchope happily demonstrated.

Their chief threat is Maciej Zurawksi, and wingers Smolarek and Krzynowek are vital to the Poles attacking interest.

Another blank score sheet is bound to revive the flood of criticism of Janas's decision to leave Tomasz Frankowksi, joint-leading scorer in the qualifying campaign, at home in Poland.

Germany, though, are likely to prevail. Goalkeeper Jens Lehmann was complaining of a sore leg after the opening night but, with Oliver Kahn desperate to play, his moaning has quietened in the last few days.

Ballack will almost certainly come in for Tim Borowski and add more dynamism to attack-minded colleagues like Phillip Lamm and Torsten Frings.

Another big night beckons, despite the edgy history. And the statistics are not promising for poor Poland.

In the eight times they have played their mighty neighbours since the second World War, they have known nothing but defeat. And four years ago, when the chips were down against Poland and a nation demanded better, they managed to lose 4-0.