Solid Lansdowne can take it

It's only right and proper that St Mary's and Lansdowne should emerge as the gatecrashers of what has been a Munster ball in the blue riband of the domestic game, the AIB League final.

The two teams have come good at the right time and are the country's form sides. They deserve to be here and, especially in St Mary's' case, have also been the most persistent threats to the Munster hegemony over the past decade.

St Mary's, who topped Division One in regular combat, have their centenary year next season. It almost seems primed for them, perhaps too much so. For Lansdowne have been a bigger bugbear for them than any of the Munster sides, or anybody else. In nine meetings St Mary's have won only once, under lights at Lansdowne Road three years ago, with one drawn game and seven victories to Lansdowne.

As the latest of these was a midweek game in early February, Lansdowne's decidedly unmemorable 18-13 win even scotched the notion that St Mary's had an edge at night-time. Today's game may also be no cracker. There may be too much tension, and most of all too much familiarity involved. This match-up features 17 players who have appeared for Leinster this season and there's a strong possibility that the sides will cancel each other out. All the more so as they have the division's best defensive records and both coaching teams will have so much "insider knowledge".

The pick-up-and-charges of the respective number eights, Victor Costello and Colin McEntee, are so often the starting point for both sides, but it would be no surprise if the fringe defences negate these rumbles at source.

Likewise, one can well imagine Shane Horgan and Gus Hamilton pushing up into the St Mary's midfield, and successfully cutting off the supply lines to the pacey St Mary's outside backs. Despite favourable conditions, far from breaking free early on this seems more likely to be a case of a cagey opening quarter or half-hour or so, pockmarked by the odd penalty, before the game gradually comes to life.

The packs and the goalkickers may have the biggest say in the destiny of the title. Unnervingly for St Mary's, they've outscored Lansdowne by 16 tries to 11 in past meetings, yet Lansdowne have scored 26 penalties to 11 for St Mary's.

St Mary's do have the superior line-out thrower in Peter Smyth and the best primary ball-winner in Malcolm O'Kelly, but Lansdowne are more likely to detour around Big Mal. And Lansdowne's rucking has come on immeasurably in their recent run of form - strictly on the semi-final formguides, they look in better nick.

However, Angus McKeen's disruptive technique could well fall foul of referee Alan Lewis.

The manner of the wake-up call from Ballymena in the semi-final may well have been a blessing in disguise for St Mary's. Barry Everitt has been in a rich vein of form for Lansdowne (four tries in three games, 80 points in his last four outings) but having been usurped by Emmet Farrell, Mark McHugh and now, seemingly, Paul Burke at Leinster level the pressure is back on today and he'll hardly be granted the space he had in the semi-final against Terenure.

Everitt and Shane Horgan arguably give Lansdowne more power through the middle, and of the three Leinster full backs emerging from injury-disrupted campaigns, Gordon D'Arcy looks in the best nick.

Having laid down a marker last week against Girvan Dempsey, he now has Peter McKenna (still looking a bit ginger after his ankle injury) in his sights today. Mentally, which could be the most crucial factor, St Mary's also have the baggage of 1993 to contend with, even if the only direct link to that harrowing last-day defeat to Young Munster is the coaching ticket of Brent Pope and Nicky Barry.

It's one of those games where you can easily make a case for either side. Given a sense that their time is now and that they've been the best side, St Mary's may ultimately have the greater will to dig deep, dip into their replacements' bench and cut loose in the final quarter to get there.

But if the St Mary's highs are arguably higher, their lows are lower. In a tight game (which this could well be) with tries at a premium, there is a case for making Lansdowne favourites.

For if they negate Costello at source, how will St Mary's hurt them? And all the while there is the lurking suspicion that Lansdowne might be mentally stronger.