Avoiding defeat in their opening game often the first priority for teams
Hosts Brazil will hope to start with a swagger but Croatia may have a very different game plan
Brazil’s Neymar practising his free-kick technique at the Arena de Sao Paulo ahead of the hosts’ World Cup opener against Croatia. Photo: Christopher Lee/Getty Images
But don’t be entirely surprised if things don’t go completely to plan in São Paulo this evening. Previous tournaments have shown the opening round of games can be treacherous territory for even the best of teams and the opening match is more than capable of producing an upset.
In the circumstances, it’s not entirely surprising that caution gets the better of quite a few managers who opt early in the competition to have their players dig in for a draw.
Over the four tournaments that the competition has followed its present format of three points for a win and the top two in each group progressing to the second round, just four of the 64 teams who made it to those knockout stages did so after losing their opener.
Italy, of course, came within a few spot kicks of winning the title in the USA after losing to Ireland in the Giants Stadium.
Oddly enough, another of the semi-finalists that year, Bulgaria, also had to bounce back after losing their opening game – 3-0 to Nigeria in their case.
But the Italians made it through as one of the best third -placed sides and that escape route was closed off by the expansion of the tournament to 32 teams four years later.
Since then only Turkey (2002), Ghana and Ukraine (both 2006) and Spain, who went on to win the title after losing to the Swiss first time out in 2010, have survived their opener.
Winning is obviously the preferred outcome and in 2006 only five sides that failed to take three points from their first outing were still around when things started to get interesting. Avoiding defeat, though, generally leaves a fair bit of scope to progress with six out of 16 teams in 1998 and 2002 and seven in 2010 taking just one point from their first game before securing a top-two finish in their group.
In 40 per cent of cases over the four tournaments, the sides advance in pairs so to speak, with two teams progressing having faced each other in the original, drawn game. This can probably be explained in a number of cases by sides seeing each other as serious rivals for a top-two spot and opting, in effect, to take their chances against the group’s other two sides.
Pretty starklyEvents in South Africa demonstrated pretty starkly just how important it is to have something on the board after the first round of games however.
Eight of 10 teams (80 per cent) who won their opening fixtures there progressed, significantly better than the seven of 12 (58 per cent) that went through after drawing. The corresponding figure for those who lost, though, was just one out of 10, ie a mere 10 per cent survival rate.