Scots bogeymen unlikely to breach Leinster fortress

MAGNERS LEAGUE Leinster v Edinburgh:THE BOGEY men are back. Edinburgh loom large on Leinster's horizon this season, most notably with their fourth Euro trek to Murrayfield on Heineken Cup opening weekend.

And as a tasty little appetiser this evening, Andy Robinson's side are the first outfit to test the credentials of the Magners League champions on home soil.

Including half a dozen Euro match-ups along with 10 in the League, the sides have met 16 times; 14 of them in the last four seasons.

Familiarity ought not to have brought complacency at any rate, for Leinster's tally of wins in that series is a somewhat meagre six, with one draw and Edinburgh victorious nine times.

Three times Edinburgh have done untold damage to Leinster's European aspirations, twice contributing to exits at the pool stages, and even when Michael Cheika's men travelled to Murrayfield to be crowned league champions last season for a fixture largely academic to Robinson's team, the width of a post delayed Leinster's coronation.

It's almost a reprise of the horrors inflicted upon Ireland teams by Scotland throughout the doleful 90s. Admittedly, most of the damage has been wreaked at the Edinburgh venue, where Leinster have lost on seven of eight visits, whereas they have won the last four clashes in Dublin.

Indeed, despite a somewhat nomadic existence in the capital - Donnybrook, Lansdowne Road and now the RDS all having been their home - Leinster have made Dublin something of a fortress.

That eye-opening, spine-shuddering 52-23 dissection by Llanelli during the World Cup in October last year remains not only their most recent home defeat but also their only one in any competition at any of their venues since November 2005.

As expected, Cheika has rung the changes, though not drastically, as part of his early-season "rotation" policy, with last season's sole ever-present, Stanley Wright, returning from injury in place of Cian Healy in the front row and Trevor Hogan replacing Devon Toner in the second row.

In the back line, Luke Fitzgerald (who turns 21 tomorrow) and Girvan Dempsey are promoted from the bench in place of Shane Horgan and Isa Nacewa, both of whom, like Healy and Toner, move to the bench.

Last week's draw in Cardiff was arguably evidence of a desire to improve Leinster's ability to work their way back into games that are going against them.

Against Edinburgh it has often worked the other way, Leinster letting opponents akin to a dog with a bone back into the game.

Nevertheless, the pressure is immediately on the young tyro and the wise old head, all the more so as Cheika has targeted a much improved offensive effort after the failure to establish much of an attacking shape in Cardiff, where they reverted to a kicking game.

With 12,500 tickets sold as of lunchtime yesterday, that improvement in attack will be the desire of an expectant home crowd as well.

Having made just one change from the team beaten at home by Munster last week, Scott Newlands for Alan MacDonald (hip), Robinson enthused of the Dublin venue: "The RDS is a great place to play, especially in front of a sell-out crowd, and we are looking to improve on how we performed last week.

"The key objective for us is to focus on ourselves and we have highlighted key areas where we need to improve.

"Last week against Munster we realised that we underperformed, and if we are going to concede two tries, then we are going to struggle to win games."

LEINSTER:G Dempsey; L Fitzgerald, B O'Driscoll, F Contepomi, R Kearney; J Sexton, C Whitaker (capt); R McCormack, B Jackman, S Wright; T Hogan, M O'Kelly; C Jowitt, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: C Healy, J Fogarty, D Toner, S O'Brien, C Keane, S Horgan, I Nacewa.

EDINBURGH:H Southwell; M Robertson, C MacRae, N De Luca, C Paterson; P Godman, M Blair (capt); A Jacobsen, R Ford, G Cross; C Hamilton, B Gissing; M Mustchin, A Hogg, S Newlands. Replacements: S Lawrie, G Kerr, S Turnbull, A Kelly, G Laidlaw, D Blair, A Turnbull.

Referee:Tim Hayes (WRU).

Betting (Paddy Power):1/7 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Edinburgh. Handicap odds (= Edinburgh +12pts) 10/11 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Edinburgh.

Forecast:Leinster to win.