Scoring potential gives Kerry the edge

As an all-Munster All-Ireland this may not have the widespread appeal of other finals, but for Kerry and Cork it's probably as important a game as they've ever played in.

For Kerry, there is much more at stake than just another All-Ireland medal. I remember well from my own playing days with Kerry what it meant to play Cork, even in a Munster final, and the huge hype and rivalry around those occasions.

The overwhelming feeling was you'd dare not lose to Cork, and that emotion can only reach a higher level on the All-Ireland stage. I honestly feel it's the fear of losing that will drive both teams, but obviously more so for Kerry. I know no one on that Kerry team could contemplate losing to Cork. Losing a Munster final to Cork is bad enough, but losing an All-Ireland doesn't bear thinking about. How could you live with it?

That fear could work in two ways: It could have an inhibiting effect, the inner fear preventing the players from really expressing themselves; or it could have a galvanizing effect, ensuring the players start tomorrow knowing defeat is not an option.

Both managers have a key role in getting their players into the correct mindset. For Pat O'Shea the job is probably easier. This is an experienced Kerry team, well used to the All-Ireland stage, with leaders throughout the field, especially the Ó Sé brothers, Colm Cooper, and Declan O'Sullivan.

In fact, Cooper could have a vital influence on the result. Croke Park is his playground, and if he's allowed any sort of freedom and scoring opportunity tomorrow that will go a long way towards a Kerry win. But if Cork do an even reasonable man-marking job on him the impact in their favour will prove just as big.

For Billy Morgan, it's about maintaining the confidence and belief Cork have built up in recent weeks. Of course, it's a huge day for Morgan as well. It's a game he's desperate to win, and a victory here would make up for all the defeats he's endured at the hands of Kerry over the years. And for the Cork players, this is a once in a lifetime chance to make history.

On that note, I expect both managers will send out their teams with similar instructions: Hit the ground running, win the early ball, and lay down a marker. Cork did exactly that in the opening exchanges against Meath, particularly the way Graham Canty ran through Stephen Bray early on. Meath just couldn't live with that.

Likewise, Kerry started in a flurry against Dublin, and they'll also recall the opening exchanges against Cork in last year's semi-final. Darragh Ó Sé practically ran over Nicholas Murphy early on, and Murphy never recovered.

Naturally, this scenario will make for some very physical and heated exchanges, but it's important for both teams to maintain their discipline and composure. There will be some frantic play around midfield, but as always, it's the scoreboard that counts in the end.

That's one reason why Cork have started James Masters. He's a natural scorer, and Cork's strength is their running game. I expect them to win more than 50 per cent of the possession at midfield, but the crucial thing is to convert that into scores. I think they will test the Kerry full back line, with Tom O'Sullivan a little uncertain under the high ball, and Padraig Reidy still just a rookie, but I would still wonder if Cork have the forwards to transfer that possession into scores.

It's like the old Brazilian soccer mentality, about scoring more than you concede. And Kerry can do that.

Even with less possession, they have the forwards to get scores more easily - the likes of Cooper, O'Sullivan, Bryan Sheehan, Kieran Donaghy.

While there's no way Kerry will run away with this, and definitely won't do a "Kilkenny" on it, I do think they have the greater spread of forwards to impact on the scoreboard, especially given the strength of their bench. And, ultimately, that's what counts. And I can't see Cork establishing a winning advantage early on.

But what Kerry won't want to do is leave it open for a close finish. While they are good are closing out tight matches, I feel Cork's best chance of winning is to stay within two or three points going into the final five minutes or so.

In that situation, it would become a match of hunger, and you just couldn't trust Cork. Hunger is never a problem with Kerry, but you would have to imagine Cork's hunger would be greater.

If they're allowed run at Kerry at all in those closing minutes, and Kerry's lead is in any way fragile, then for sure Cork have a chance.

From the outset, though, it's very close to being a 50-50 game, with Kerry's only obvious advantage their more potent forward line. And I still suspect Anthony Lynch may play some role.

If say he's called in for the last 20 minutes you can imagine the lift he'll give the Cork team - not that this game will lack emotion at any stage.