Schmidt's observations true, flaws of Cup are also its beauties

ON RUGBY:Amid all the bleating and bully boy demands from the English and French clubs to suit their own, if contrasting, needs entirely, the Heineken Cup has never been without its flaws. That said, as Joe Schmidt observed in the aftermath of Saturday's defeat to Clermont, its flaws are also its beauties.

So it is that Leinster, despite being the clearest of number one-ranked teams in the competition’s history, can be in the same pool as the team they beat in last season’s semi-finals, along with an English and Welsh club. Likewise, teams drawn with Italian opposition often have a better chance of advancing – Biarritz and Leicester being serial beneficiaries.

Yet this may not happen this time, with Biarritz especially the last-ranked runners-up as things stand. Pool Six, without an Italian or Scottish team in sight, has seen Toulon and Montpellier stretch clear. You had to double check who was the top seed here, and double check again after discovering it is Cardiff – ranked fifth in the ERC rankings after a semi-final and quarter-final in the previous four years, as well as winning the Amlin Challenge Cup three seasons ago. The Blues have one point from four games.

Thus far, the competition had contained unusually few surprises but last Saturday, aside from the home defeats for Leinster and Ulster, Treviso nearly beat Leicester and the Ospreys beat Toulouse. Alas, on a weekend when 11 sides from the Rabo PRO12 faced English or French opposition, the Ospreys recorded the only win. Ouch. But one of the beauties of the Cup is that in stark contrast to football’s Champions League, where clubs need only be concerned about their own pools, you have to keep an eye on other pools as well. And, akin to Connacht beating Biarritz, the Ospreys beating Toulouse could well be a helpful result for Munster and/or Leinster.

Best-placed

Because of those two results in pools containing Italians sides, the maximum Biarritz can obtain (which is unlikely) is 19 points and that may now be the threshold in the Toulouse/Leicester pool as well.

Of the Irish, Ulster are still best-placed, although their prospects of a home quarter-final have been imperilled given the hot pace being set by Harlequins, Clermont and Toulon, and to do so they will probably have to do something they’ve never done before, namely win on French soil against Castres in round six. What’s more, they must do so without Johann Muller (and how sorely he was missed), Stephen Ferris and Tommy Bowe.

Many Leinster fans will assuredly have examined the other groups intently, given one of the two best runners-up slots is the champions’ only viable route to the knock-out stages.

Leinster are currently the fifth best runners-up on 10 points, and need other results to go their way such as, perhaps, the Ospreys beating Leicester in round five and Toulon winning away to Montpellier in round six to keep the latter on 18 or 19. Even though Toulon might already be through by then, they could have the carrot of a money-spinning home quarter-final in front of 50,000 at the Stade Velodrome in Marseilles. Besides which Toulon assuredly have the best second team in the competition.

Ultimately, it’s hard not to envisage at least two runners-up finishing on 19 points or better, so not only have Leinster to beat the Scarlets at home and Exeter away, but probably record bonus-point wins as well. For in the event of sides from different pools finishing with the same points, tries scored is the next criteria and Leinster have only scored three to date.

Priceless

Only tryless Edinburgh have scored less. So even 19 points would, most likely, not be sufficient for the holders. All that said and done, 20 points could conceivably be enough to progress, and if that were to happen, then Fergus McFadden’s break-out 80th-minute try could yet be priceless.

On mature recollection, we may have been a bit too downbeat in these pages yesterday about Munster’s chances. Not alone, as stated, have they a viable chance of winning the pool were Racing to beat Saracens in a game they have switched to Nantes, but with 11 points and seven tries, and Edinburgh away and Racing at home, they are both likelier to reach the 20-point threshold and better set if they did so. Indeed, you’d back Munster to win those matches and, were they to win with bonus pints then, barring a freakish set of results elsewhere, 21 points would ensure their presence in the last eight.

Connacht’s hopes of extending their European campaign beyond January, even by dint of reaching the Challenge Cup quarter-finals as third, fourth or fifth best runners-up have been seriously damaged by defeat to Biarritz. It leaves Eric Elwood’s team sitting on eight points and, a la Leinster, with only three tries, as well as now having a worse head-to-heard record against Biarritz.

Their hopes of qualifying for next season’s tournament by dint of a fellow Irish team winning the Heineken Cup have receded too, although then again it’s not beyond the bounds that one of them might yet win the Challenge Cup at the RDS next May, given Leinster could conceivably be re-routed there.

In any event the quarter-final line-up could read something like: Harlequins v Munster, Clermont v Montpellier, Toulon v Toulouse, Ulster v Saracens.

gthornley@irishtimes.com