Runners and riders in the lottery of the minorities

OTHERS:They're the minorities within the minorities, the sports we only ever turn our attention to once every four years and even then only bless with a sideways glance. Yet at these Olympics, Irish athletes are competing across the broadest spectrum of sports ever at a single games, with first-time representation in modern pentathlon as well as the first ever female judo player.

As for whether they can compete at the business end, there’s precious little in our history that says we should expect very much. Have we a springer from nowhere this time around? Very probably not. A lot of things would have to go right in our camp and wrong in others. It can happen but it’s a long shot.

It could well be the various comings and goings have actually left Ireland with the best chance of a medal in showjumping, with Cian O’Connor partnering Blue Lloyd 12.

They’re proven performers at Nations Cup level and since the showjumping competition can often descend into something of a lottery – see O’Connor in Athens when rider after rider who came after him four-faulted him into his briefly-won gold – this is one event where a bit of luck could see a medal.

Triathlete Aileen Morrison is a definite top-10 candidate, while trap shooter Derek Burnett is world-class on his day but the margins are minuscule and he will likely be two or three targets short of a final.

The eventing team will have to overcome their traditional dressage weakness if they are to have any hope.

Elsewhere, there are plenty in the squad for whom qualification for the games was a victory in itself. Gymnast Kieran Behan and modern pentathletes Natalya Coyle and Arthur Lanigan-O’Keeffe fall into this category, as does triathlete Gavin Noble.

Badminton players Scott Evans and Chloe Magee have very tough first-round draws that neither is likely to survive.

Malachy Clerkin

VERDICT- Should be competitive

Showjumping can be a bit of a lottery, it wouldn’t constitute a major shock were Cian O’Connor’s number to come up. Equally, triathlete Aileen Morrison has form in world competition and could be in the final shake-up.

* This article was amended on July 31st, 2012 for legal reasons.