Six Nations postponements could impact Ireland’s Rugby World Cup seeding

The conclusion to the Guinness 2020 Six Nations remains shrouded in doubt. For the time being, the France-Ireland game at the Stade de France on Saturday week, March 14th, remains on course to be played as scheduled, albeit pending daily developments as the disruption to sports continues apace caused by the spread of the coronavirus disease .

This follows a combined meeting between a French government working group, including the minister of youth and sport, Roxana Maracineanu, and senior figures in all the leading sports associations in France, including the French Rugby Federation, in Paris on Wednesday.

Ostensibly, it was to agree upon a collective approach to the ever-changing narrative amid the increasing threat posed by the coronaviruse, without making definitive decisions about upcoming sports events such as the France-Ireland game.

But there remains the distinct possibility of the French Government only permitting the game to go ahead as scheduled if it is played behind closed doors, in which case a postponement would seem the likelier option.

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The French government have already decreed that gatherings in excess of 5,000 people in confined areas are prohibited. Thus far, this is only set to affect Top 14 matches involving Racing 92, whose La Defense Arena is enclosed.

But the French Government may yet decide that an event with an 80,000 capacity crowd, such as the France-Ireland game, would carry the risk of further spreading the Covid-19 disease, so decreeing it could only take place without spectators.

In that scenario, the Six Nations would enter discussions with the French Federation and the IRFU regarding a choice between playing the game behind closed doors or rearranging it for a later date.

The latter may be preferable given the estimated cost of €3 million to the FFR for refunding tickets, as well as costing the Six Nations finale all sense of occasion for Les Bleus’ first tilt at a title and potentially a Grand Slam.

If their game against Scotland in Murrayfield this Saturday proceeds (the French sports minister has intimated there may be a travel ban on the estimated 10,000 French supporters) and France register a fourth win in this year’s Six Nations, the likelier option would be to reschedule the game.

This would most probably be in October, ideally with a capacity crowd, or if it remains the only option, behind closed doors.

Viable option

Meanwhile, the Six Nations game between Italy and England, also scheduled on Saturday week at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, will either be played without fans or be postponed after the Italian government confirmed that all sporting events must be staged behind closed doors until April 3rd.

The government has also closed cinemas and theatres, in banning all public events across the whole country, to try to contain the coronavirus outbreak, according to a draft decree drawn up on Wednesday. Deaths in Italy caused by the Covid-19 virus have risen to over 100.

Furthermore, Italian football authorities have ordered Serie A to play matches behind closed doors, and this now looks like the only viable option for the Italy-England game, for which an estimated 20,000 English fans are expected to travel.

The Six Nations were last night awaiting confirmation of these events. However, in this scenario, akin to the France-Ireland game, the tournament’s governing body would consult with the respective Federations and Unions before deciding whether to play the games on March 14th or postpone them to a later date – again, most likely October.

The Italian Federation would be loath to play the game behind closed doors, as this would cost them an estimated €2.5million in refunded tickets.

One way or the other, the Six Nations will be desperate to have the Ireland-Italy match and any other postponed games re-arranged and played. Allowing for the World War I and II years, the only incomplete Championship since 1898 was the 1972 Five Nations, when Scotland and Wales refused to play in Lansdowne Road because of the Troubles.

However, that was then and this is now.

Aside from the integrity of the tournament, there is the prize money that goes with final places and also world ranking points, which are hugely significant this year as the draw for the 2023 World Cup in France is set to follow next November’s autumnal matches.

For example, were the Ireland-Italy game not to be re-fixed and so declared a 0-0 draw, Ireland (currently ranked fourth) would lose a full ranking point, which in turn could conceivably cost them a top tier seeding.