Rugby statistics: It’s a rocky road to the Ireland senior team

The upcoming November Test matches against New Zealand (twice), Canada and Australia will offer Ireland coach Joe Schmidt the opportunity to give senior debuts to some outstanding young talents. Particularly against the Canucks, Schmidt may look towards Garry Ringrose, Joey Carbery, Dan Leavy, Jack O'Donoghue, Cian Kelleher, Darren Sweetnam and Jacob Stockdale, to single out a handful .

All have been part of underage international teams but in recent times have demonstrated an aptitude for top-level rugby.

Others, like Niyi Adeolokun, have negotiated a slightly different journey to press a claim, but one that's compelling in its own right. The jump from the under-20 side to international rugby is significant though, as the numbers bear out.

Only seven out of 140 players chosen to represent the Ireland under-20 team at successive Junior World Championship squads from 2012-2016 have gone on to play senior international rugby for their country so far. A meagre five per cent.

The magnificent seven – Jack Conan (age 24), Iain Henderson (24), Paddy Jackson (24), Kieran Marmion (24), Stuart Olding (23), Tadhg Furlong (23) and Josh van der Flier (23) – all came from the class of 2012, although van der Flier played a second year at that particular age-grade in 2013.

Replicate

Over that five-year period, quite a number of players have lined out for the under-20s for two years in a row; others to replicate van der Flier's achievement include Munster's O'Donoghue, Leinster's Ringrose, Connacht's Ciaran Gaffney and Ulster's Stockdale, to name one from each province.

Roughly 17½ per cent of the 140 players no longer represent a professional franchise, while 14 per cent have a contract overseas. Just over 82 per cent are still playing professional rugby.

A criticism of Irish rugby in the past was the seeming reluctance to bring young players through to senior international level, especially compared to the southern hemisphere countries and, latterly, Wales, where Warren Gatland has given several teenagers full debuts during his tenure.

In mitigation, the maturation of Irish players in rugby terms has, with obvious exceptions, traditionally been a slightly longer process.

Of the seven players listed above, former Ireland coach Declan Kidney gave a first cap to Olding, Henderson and Jackson, while Schmidt handed debuts to the other four.

Schmidt has been studiously and conspicuously inclusive in bringing promising young players into the senior national squad environment as a quasi acclimatisation process, even when they were unlikely to be capped in the short term.

The most recent training camp provided further evidence of this tendency.

The IRFU’s decision to change the emphasis to a more developmental outlook at Ireland under-18s, including the amalgamation of the clubs, youths and schools strata, to a more results-driven focus for the first time at Ireland under-20s coincided with a desire to provide a more direct link with the provincial academies.

Mike Ruddock did a brilliant job with the Ireland under-20 team during his time in charge, leading them to a Junior World Championship semi-final in 2014.

His successor, Nigel Carolan, who is head of the Connacht academy, has also been outstanding since taking over in 2015, last June leading the national side to the World Junior Championship final, where they lost to hosts England.

Pattern

There is a shift away from handing out three-year academy contracts, in favour of a yearly review, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the numbers that graduate. The graphic above highlights a discernible change in pattern.

From the 2012 Ireland under-20 squad, 13 remain on provincial/Ireland contracts; that increased to 18 in 2013, 20 in 2014, and a whopping 26 in 2015; but from last season’s crop that has fallen to 18.

What is interesting with regard to the class of 2015 is that 22 of the 26 players are on academy contracts, with Lorcan Dow, Sam Arnold, Stockdale and Ringrose the exceptions: 17 of the 18 from the 2016 provincial/Ireland (Stockdale again) contract group are on academy deals.

Examining the footfall from under-20 to senior international over the next few years will offer a revealing insight into both the accuracy of the initial talent identification and the developmental process.