Home advantage in semi-final a huge incentive for Munster

Guinness Pro12
Munster v Dragons
Musgrave Park, Saturday, 3pm.
TG4

Mindful that no team has ever won a semi-final away from home, Munster will chase the decidedly advantageous carrot of a home semi-final next Saturday in Thomond Park and to that end need to either better Glasgow’s result at home to Ulster or the Ospreys’ result away to Connacht.

In other words, they are also dependent upon the favours of their fellow Irish provinces. Otherwise Munster will most probably need a bonus point to have any chance of finishing in the top two.

They will be acutely wary of a well-coached and spirited Dragons side which has maintained its form, witness last week's win over Edinburgh, despite their Challenge Cup disappointment, a small squad and having seemingly little tangible to play for.

In the enforced absence of Tommy O'Donnell, whose season has been cut short by a torn hamstring, as well as Simon Zebo and Peter O'Mahony, both of whom are suffering back injuries which are expected to clear up for the semi-finals, Anthony Foley makes five changes.

Frontrow

John Ryan and BJ Botha come into the frontrow, with Donnacha Ryan making the switch to blindside flanker and Billy Holland returning to the secondrow alongside Paul O'Connell, who makes his first appearance at the redeveloped Cork ground since September 2013, also against the Dragons. Ian Keatley will win his 100th cap for the province in a backline featuring one change, namely Ronan O'Mahony replacing Zebo on the wing.

On the Welsh side, Jason Tovey moves position from outhalf to fullback as Tom Prydie shifts across the back three to wing joining Welsh international Hallam Amos. Dorian Jones moves from the bench to outhalf and Jonathan Evans makes his last appearance as scrumhalf for the Welsh Region before joining up with Bath Rugby next season.

Munster’s only defeat in the last nine rounds of Pro12 play came on a visit to the Ospreys, and they have won their last nine matches in Cork since Cardiff Blues beat them there in January 2013.

First meeting

The Dragons’ only victory over Munster in their last eight encounters came at Rodney Parade in April 2013 whilst the only time they have won on Munster soil was on their very first meeting at Thomond Park in 2004.

Supporters can join Munster on the #HomeRun from €20 for adults, while family terrace packs are €40. Tickets can be purchased online from the Munster website, from the Munster Rugby Ticket Offices at Musgrave Park and Thomond Park, or by calling 0818 719300. Tickets will also be on sale at the ground at 10am from the Dolphin gate, and from 1.30pm at the Sunday's Well gate.

MUNSTER: F Jones; K Earls, A Smith, D Hurley (capt), R O'Mahony; I Keatley, C Murray; J Ryan, E Guinazu, BJ Botha, B Holland, P O'Connell, D Ryan, P Butler, CJ Stander. Replacements: N Scannell, D Kilcoyne, S Archer, S Dougall, J O'Donoghue, D Williams, JJ Hanrahan, A Conway.

NEWPORT-GWENT DRAGONS: J Tovey, T Prydie, T Morgan, J Dixon, H Amos, D Jones, J Evans; B Stankovich, H Gustafson, B Harris, C Hill, R Landman (capt), N Crosswell, N Cudd, T Faletau. Replacements: R Buckley, P Price, L Fairbrother, M Screech, J Benjamin, R Rees, A Hewitt, G Rhys Jones. Referee: Ben Whitehouse (IRFU).

Last three meetings: (2014-15) Dragons 12 Munster 38. (2013-14) Dragons 14 Munster 18, Munster 23 Dragons 9.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/14 Munster, 35/1 Draw, 6/1 Dragons. Handicap odds (Dragons +16pts) 10/11 Munster, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Dragons.

Forecast: Munster to win.