Iain Henderson set to be Ireland’s one change for All Blacks clash

Heading into last week’s game against Japan, the feeling was that if any players were going to break into the starting XV for the marquee game of the Autumn Series against New Zealand on Saturday at the Aviva Stadium (kick-off 3.15pm) then most probably they were going to be the last of the returning Lions, namely Iain Henderson and Conor Murray.

Each had been previously been confined to just one outing, Henderson for almost an hour and Murray for less than half an hour. Aside from their experience, Henderson has the kind of secondrow horse power desirable for a meeting with the All Blacks and Murray the know-how from being part of winning teams against them as well as his renowned kicking game.

But that may have changed given the nature of Ireland’s performance in their 60-5 win, and especially Jamison Gibson-Park at scrum-half. His service, decision-making and kicking game were all sharp.

The word is Henderson is in line for a recall when Andy Farrell unveils his side at lunchtime on Thursday, with Tadhg Beirne moving to the bench, in an otherwise unchanged match-day 23.

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The New Zealand side is to be announced in the morning, and it is altogether far more complicated to call.

“The big thing for me is what team do New Zealand pick,” said Ronan O’Gara this week. “For me there’s no doubt that New Zealand have better strength in depth but it’s very hard to pick their team, very difficult.

“Thinking about it, the frontrow, you could pick a number of combinations. The backrow, a number of combinations. I presume it will be (TJ) Perenara and (Richie) Mo’unga but they might go Beauden Barrett at 10. What centres do they pick? What back three do they pick?

“For a New Zealand team that’s rare. You’d probably have at least got 10 but for me because the competition for places is high it’s hard to pick their starting team and there’s an awful lot of versatility in their backs between (David) Havili, the Barretts, (Damian) McKenzie even to a point, their centres, Jack Goodhue, Braydon Ennor, George Bridge, you could have some fun picking that team or setting up that team to attack.”

Yet Ian Foster’s selection policy on their end-of-year tour to date – with 32 players used in three games and a totally changed XV for last Saturday’s 47-9 win over Italy in Rome – suggests the All Blacks will similarly revert in large part to the starting XV for last Saturday week’s 54-16 win in Wales.

If so, that would see the return of Beauden Barrett alongside halfback TJ Perenara, while up front the Joe Moody-Codie Taylor-Nepo Laulala frontrow which featured in both of New Zealand’s final Rugby Championship games against South Africa and Wales will be restored.

The brilliant Brodie Retallick is sure to be restored at lock, most probably alongside familiar secondrow partner Sam Whitelock, as was also the case against South Africa and Wales. The loose forward trio against Wales was Ethan Blackadder, Dalton Papali’I and Ardie Savea, like Retallick one of the first names on the teamsheet.

If Beauden Barrett is picked to start, a likelier proposition after his two-try, man-of-the-match performance in his 100th Test against Wales, then as was the case a fortnight ago that would again point to his brother Jordan starting at fullback and assuming the goalkicking duties.

After that, the electric Will Jordan would also be in line to start again after taking his tally to 16 tries in 11 Tests against Wales. Reiko Ioane was on the other wing in Cardiff, although he has made a seamless transition to centre, providing playmaking skills as well as speed in making six of his 10 starts there for the All Blacks this year.

David Havili and the influential Anton Lienert-Brown were the midfield duo against Wales although, as O’Gara said, between there and on the wing they have options aplenty.

They’re also liable to have a strong bench, which could see Mo’unga joined by the 101-times capped Aaron Smith after he linked up with the squad this week following the birth of his son and in light of Brad Weber’s head injury against Italy.

Ireland (possible): Keenan; Conway, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe; Sexton, Gibson-Park; Porter, Kelleher, Furlong; Ryan, Henderson; Doris, van der Flier, Conan. Replacements: Sheahan or Herring, Healy or Kilcoyne, Bealham or Healy, Beirne, O’Mahony, Murray, Carbery, Earls.

New Zealand: J Barrett; Jordan, Lienert-Brown, Havili, R Ioane; B Barrett, TJ Perenara; Moody, Taylor, Laulala; Whitelock, Retallic; Blackadder, Papali’i, Savea.