Munster will relish challenge of clawing back Exeter advantage at Thomond Park

Munster (8) v Exeter (13), Thomond Park, Saturday, 3pm – Live on BT Sport

In time-honoured fashion Munster are in do-or-die mode and facing an English club at Thomond Park. Nothing much at stake, just Munster’s interest in the Heineken Champions Cup will either end at the Last 16 stage for the second season running and see them miss out on the quarter-finals for the third season in a row, or they will be reacquainted with the last eight again, territory which their history in the competition more or less demands.

Munster have had to cope with plenty of outside noise, distractions and adversity this season, be it coaching departures, the ill-fated South African trip at the end of November, meaning a rescheduled two-week safari, and then last week’s spate of injuries and the stomach bug which hit the squad.

Yet they can draw strength from the way they have hung tough, particularly with that resourceful win away to Wasps in December with their mix of internationals and academy players. For all the misgivings about their performance levels, that was the first of four pool wins out of four – one of only three teams to achieve that feat on the actual field of play.

They have been strengthened by the return of captain Peter O'Mahony, Joey Carbery and Simon Zebo, which should inject the team with spiritual leadership, savvy and big-game experience, as well as improving their lineout.

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Josh Wycherely and John Ryan also come into the frontrow, and last week’s captain, Jack O’Donoghue, moves to number eight, while Diarmuid Barron has been named on another 6-2 bench after recovering from the stomach bug which forced his and Zebo’s late withdrawal.

Exeter will be without their England and Lions number eight Sam Simmonds, who was the 2019/20 European Player of the Year, and currently the leading try scorer in the 2021/22 Champions Cup.

Simmonds’s absence from the starting XV is Rob Baxter’s only change.

Jannes Kirsten comes in at openside with Jacques Vermeulen moving to number eight. Billy Keast, Santiago Grondona and Tom Gilbert-Hendrickson are restored to the bench.

Disappointingly, Thomond Park is again not a sell-out, which would have seemed unthinkable for a European knock-out game until recent times, amid clear signs of a disconnect and discontent with their Cork fan base. It’s assuredly a factor that Cork are hosting the mighty Limerick hurlers, and ditto Waterford are at home to Tipperary, albeit tomorrow.

Sales are reportedly near the 20,000 mark, and tickets are available to purchase from €25 for adults and €12.50 for juniors and will be available online right up to kick-off.

But those in attendance will certainly be fervently into what’s at stake here, a season-extending quarter-final away to Ulster or at home to Toulouse.

Keeping Exeter to within five points was a relative result for Munster, all the more so after trailing 10-0 at the break and considering Exeter only scored twice from 15 visits to the Munster 22.

Yet the nagging suspicion remains that a five-point lead still looks significant given the low-scoring nature of this match-up. Indeed, in winning by a point, drawing and losing once, Munster have never scored more than 10 points against Exeter.

There’s also the concern that Munster only really made inroads into the game when the Chiefs were down to 14 or 13 men, and even then weren’t as precise and as clinical as they ought to have been.

Their one-off running game hardly achieved any purchase, and while they had much more joy when working the ball to the edges, equally for the second game running they were also outflanked when Exeter emulated Leinster in working a loop through their blindside wingers coming across the pitch.

Against that, they problem solved at the breakdown well in the second half and they’ll surely not suffer to the same extent with Mathieu Raynal as they did with Pierre Brousset when losing the penalty count 16-9 last week. A couple of penalties were ridiculously harsh.

The bookies effectively can’t call it, making Munster five-point favourites, which would mean extra-time. You wouldn’t rule that out, or Munster winning by six points with the last kick of the game.

It looks the trickiest tie of the weekend to call. One could make an argument either way. But Munster well just have enough. Call it the X-factor.

MUNSTER: Mike Haley; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Simon Zebo; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Josh Wycherley, Niall Scannell, John Ryan; Jean Kleyn, Fineen Wycherley; Peter O'Mahony (capt), John Hodnett, Jack O'Donoghue.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Jeremy Loughman, Stephen Archer, Jason Jenkins, Thomas Ahern, Craig Casey, Ben Healy, Alex Kendellen.

EXETER CHIEFS: Stuart Hogg; Olly Woodburn, Henry Slade, Ian Whitten, Tom O'Flaherty; Joe Simmonds, Sam Maunder; Alec Hepburn, Jack Yeandle (capt), Harry Williams; Jonny Gray, Sam Skinner; Dave Ewers, Jannes Kirsten, Jacques Vermeulen.

Replacements: Jack Innard, Billy Keast, Patrick Schickerling, Richard Capstick, Santiago Grondona, Jack Maunder, Tom Gilbert-Hendrickson, Josh Hodge.

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France).