Paradigm shift shows Ireland are in All Blacks’ heads like never before

And then there were eight, and save for Fiji deservedly qualifying ahead of Australia, probably the eight that time-honoured tradition decreed. Yet could the 2023 Rugby World Cup be on the cusp of providing the biggest shift in the balance of power in the history of the professional era, or indeed, for over a century?

This week will go a long way toward answering that question. The quarter-finals are often a pivotal point in the tournament anyway, and in the wider scheme of things, this World Cup is no different.

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It could still come to pass that the two southern hemisphere heavyweights, New Zealand and South Africa, beat Ireland and France in the two night-time, potential epics next weekend.

It could even be that Argentina kick the weekend off by beating Wales in Saturday’s first quarter-final and that the wildly inconsistent Fijians stun prosaic England again as they did at Twickenham on the eve of the tournament, so ensuring an all-southern hemisphere semi-final line-up.

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That was what happened with England as hosts in 2015, when the four countries who now comprise the Rugby Championship re-affirmed the southern hemisphere’s seemingly perpetual dominance of the global order.

It was as if Los Pumas appeared to have underlined the superiority of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia, who have won eight of the previous nine World Cups between them, by overtaking all of the Six Nations countries, and this in England as well. Back in 2007, all of the southern hemisphere quartet had topped the pools. It was a little depressing really.

But fast forward eight years from that 2015 semi-final clean sweep, or the final 2007 pool tables from the last time the World Cup was held in France, and the groups have been topped by France, Ireland, Wales and England, all with unbeaten records.

True, Italy have been the biggest disappointment of the tournament along with the Wallabies, and were dispatched with embarrassing ease by New Zealand, while South Africa (and Ireland) saw off Scotland. Yet it’s worth noting that France beat the All Blacks 27-13, 14-man England beat Argentina 27-10, Warren Gatland mischievously lamented the lack of a bonus point in Wales’ 40-6 win over the Wallabies and Ireland beat South Africa 13-8 in the game of the tournament so far.

This comes with no guarantees for the quarter-finals, but put it another way, like never before it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that for the first time ever, having topped the four pools, a quartet of European sides will fill the semi-final places.

One ventures that each of them will start favourites, if marginally so. Of course, one World Cup is but a snapshot in history, and of all the factors which may have distorted the 2015 semi-final line-up, Ireland losing Johnny Sexton, Paul O’Connell, Sean O’Brien, Peter O’Mahony and Jared Payne was right up there.

So was the 76th minute blindside snipe off a scrum by Fourie du Preez which denied Wales at Twickenham and Craig Joubert’s controversial late decision which denied Scotland in their 35-34 loss to Australia. Even so, World Cups are the biggest, four-yearly yardstick which the game can throw up. They are the completion of a four-year cycle with teams competing on a relatively equal basis.

Ireland are deemed to be, hitherto, World Cup failures. But these things are relative. Scotland have only topped a pool, and won a quarter-final, on one occasion, and that was in 1991 when all their pool games against Japan, Zimbabwe and Ireland, and their quarter-final against Samoa, were played in Murrayfield.

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They have now suffered a pool exit for the third time in the last four World Cups and given the last two have both been under Gregor Townsend’s watch, it was perhaps a self-serving and flagrant act of deception to heap praise on Irish rugby and suggest they had the structures to dominate world rugby for five to ten years. Yet they have perhaps been the biggest victims of World Rugby’s premature and lop-sided draw, so far anyway, for it’s hard not to be believe they wouldn’t have progressed from Pools C or D.

Compared to the Scots, for the third time in four World Cups, Ireland have topped their pool, which for all the talk of glass ceilings, is no mean achievement in itself. But, of course, there’ll be plenty of talk about glass ceilings this week and standing in Ireland’s way of a first semi-final at a tenth attempt next Saturday night is the All Blacks, the three-time winners.

One can well imagine Ian Foster won’t be able to resist attempts to prey on Irish minds by bringing up the inability to advance beyond the quarter-finals in nine previous attempts. Paddy Power could probably run a book on it, and if one was to have a bet, one could imagine Dane Coles being another of the agent provocateurs.

No fixture underlines the shift in the balance of global power more than Ireland-New Zealand games. For 111 years they were a fait accompli. Then along came a fine crop of players and a coach called Joe. As Sexton said, “he taught us how to win”, and against no one more so than the All Blacks.

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From the day when Ireland were heartbreakingly denied in Schmidt’s third game back in November 2013, it has, remarkably, become arguably the best rivalry in world rugby over the last decade. And having won twice under Schmidt - in that all-out attacking masterclass in Chicago in 2016 and with the help of that trademark strike play in 2018 culminating in Jacob Stockdale’s try - Andy Farrell and co have taken this Ireland team onto another level, winning thrice more, including that historic comeback series win with the vast bulk of next Saturday’s side. No wins in the first 28, now five wins in the last eight. It’s been a paradigm shift, in both countries.

In keeping with the lyrics in Zombie, albeit the original words were with far more serious and important matters in mind than a rugby match, Ireland are in New Zealand’s heads like never before. It’s why the All Blacks will try to get inside Ireland’s heads this week.

It could be the pick of four fascinating quarter-finals. This weekend will tell us much. Maybe, or maybe not, the weekend when rugby’s balance of power on earth shifted like never before.