Permutations now taking a firm hold

SEVEN OF the nine World Cup qualifying groups have already been won, with Denmark, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy and the Netherlands securing their places in the finals in South Africa next summer.

Switzerland and Greece are the only contenders for top spot in Group Two – leaders Switzerland just need a point from their home game against Israel on Wednesday to win the group – while either Slovakia or Slovenia will emerge as Group Three winners.

The eight best runners-up go through to the play-offs – because Group 9, which is now completed, had five teams, one less than all the other groups, when calculating the best runners-up the results from matches played against the bottom teams in Groups 1 to 8 will be discounted.

While the Republic of Ireland have 17 points from nine games their tally in the current ranking of second-placed teams is just 11 – that is because Georgia are currently bottom of Group 8 so the six points the Republic have taken from them in the campaign are excluded. They are, though, assured of a place in the play-offs because they have a point more than Norway who have already finished their campaign.

Four nations are already certain of a place in the play-offs: Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, France and the Republic of Ireland. Slovakia or Slovenia will join them, as will Croatia or Ukraine from Group Six, with Portugal and Greece best placed to complete the play-off line-up. Both, though, can be caught, but if Portugal (Group One) and Greece (Group Two) win their home games on Wednesday against Malta and Luxembourg, respectively, then they will be in the play-offs.

The draw for the play-offs will be seeded, based on the next Fifa world rankings, which will be released on Friday.

The current rankings of all the teams still, mathematically, in contention for a place in the play-offs is:

Russia 6

Croatia 9

France 10

Greece 12

Switzerland 15

Portugal 17

Czech Republic 18

Israel 22

Ukraine 25

Northern Ireland 31

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND 38

Sweden 41

Norway 43

Slovakia 45

Bosnia-Herzegovina 46

Hungary 47

Slovenia 54

Latvia 58