Meath hold cards to trump pretenders

The last time Armagh came down to Dublin for an All-Ireland semi-final was 17 years ago when Kerry were the opponents. Maybe this lent an even greater air of inevitability to proceedings than was even usually the case at this stage of the championship. Whatever the reason only 17,000 turned up to watch - poor even by the admittedly low standards of the time.

Tomorrow that team's successors will take the field to face Meath in the second Bank of Ireland All-Ireland semi-final with a capacity attendance present and no-one dismissing their chances of winning the match. In fact they come into the fray with a couple of significant credentials.

Like Galway last year, they have already seen their county champions crowned with the club All-Ireland - in Crossmaglen's case for the second time in three years. Secondly, they have a couple of forwards, Diarmuid Marsden and Oisin McConville, in red-hot form, fresh from annihilating Down in the Ulster final.

The questions which hover sceptically over the positive impression created last month concern the team's overall capacity to capitalise on its advantages. Whereas its half-back line has been largely impressive, there is an air of vulnerability about the full backs. Whereas there are some big, ball-playing half-forwards, their pace isn't pronounced and there's no guarantee that centrefield can hold the show together.

That the Armagh management has made a couple of changes can be seen in a favourable light as teams embarking on the big time frequently lose the courage to make significant alterations once Croke Park beckons. Most attention has focused on the selection of John Donaldson at centrefield. The former Louth and Leinster wing back caused a bit of a surprise because his he is not familiar with the position at this level.

Feeling within the county is that he will be deployed in a defensive role to patrol between the 45s, with Paul McGrane dropping back to centrefield and exploiting his more advanced role to carry the ball forward into the attack.

Donaldson can also utilise his experience of playing centre back to drop back and cover for Kieran McGeeney, assuming the Armagh pivot takes to the road on a man-marking detail with Trevor Giles. The covering role was filled by Jarlath Burns in the Ulster final, but his presence will probably be more needed in the aerial exchanges.

Anyone watching Armagh this season has been impressed by the half-back line but expressed more reservations about the inside defence. Whereas the McNultys have settled into the corners - Justin finally finding a settled role - Ger Reid has been perceived as vulnerable at full back.

One Armagh observer says that the concern is misplaced: that Reid will be fine as long as he concentrates on attacking the ball, but if he allows his man to take possession and come at him he'll be in trouble - a doubly acute warning with Graham Geraghty around, as the Meath captain's pace makes him potentially lethal with the ball in his hand whereas, if tightly marked, his contribution can be controlled.

Meath don't come into this game free from question marks. They made heavy enough weather of a poor Dublin challenge and relied heavily on Ollie Murphy for scores - which he readily got off the tormented Peader Andrews, but which may be harder come by tomorrow. To be fair to Murphy, he also scored a goal in an altogether tighter match against Offaly and has been shaping up as a likely strike forward for a couple of seasons.

The question is can he carry the scoring burden for a team which is missing Tommy Dowd and Brendan Reilly, the two top scorers from 1996. Giles is the other part of the scoring equation for Meath. He was a little scattered at the start of the Leinster final and missed a couple of very kickable frees. Once he found his rhythm, however, he was unstoppable and pulled the strings for Murphy and other forwards to devastating effect.

The central question about this match concerns the Armagh forwards and what inroads they can make on the Meath defence. If Meath's defence holds up, there doesn't seem any great doubt that the Leinster champions can gather enough scores at the other end.

There are strong indicators pointing to Meath's ability to achieve this. For a start their fullback line is accomplished and tight-marking and it's hard to see Marsden and McConville getting 3-9 out of their opponents this time. Marsden will move around, but it's a while since any team engineered a highway through the middle of Meath's defence.

Can the McEntees and McGrane pick up enough ball to create a broader fron of scoring opportunities? Again, it's hard to be over-confident about that given the failure of Dublin's attempts to crowd the half-forwards with big men.

Centrefield doesn't look anymore promising because Burns will have his work cut out to keep John McDermott within reason, whereas Nigel Crawford works hard and distributes well and with Donaldson holding back and McGrane supplementing the attack, Armagh look overstretched.

Finally, the half-back line has been a platform for a lot of the forward movement for Armagh this year. Yet they will be concentrating on defensive duties with Giles while Nigel Nestor and Donal Curtis won't let any attacks build from deep on their wing despite the excellence of Andrew McCann and Kieran Hughes.

This is an evenly-balanced match, but Meath have the experience and the equipment to shut down Armagh and make the most of this restriction at the other end.