MARKETS remain nervous about the prospects of the EMU, according to the latest J P Morgan calculator. It shows the probability of Ireland joining slipping to 53 per cent yesterday, from 62 per cent a week ago.recent rise against the other ERM currencies in tandem with the jump in the value of sterling.
The likelihood of Italy joining continues to grow, according to the calculator, as the view grows internationally that the initial group moving to EMU is likely to be large rather than small.
The calculator is based on the interest rate swaps markets, which J P Morgan uses as an indicator of market expectations of who will join monetary union. As Irish interest rate markets are small and can be volatile, the Irish rating has tended to rise and fall, although most international analysts believe Ireland will be a member of the first group moving to monetary union.
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