Manager learning by trial and error

The fact the Republic haven't made it to next summer's European finals is sure to mean that Mick McCarthy's critics will have another cut at him, but on the strength of the qualifying campaign as a whole the truth is you'd have to say he is improving as a coach.

When McCarthy took over the job nearly four years ago, his uncertainty was obvious. Team selections were unpredictable, systems were constantly changed, and the new man rarely gave a real sense of knowing where his team was going on any more than a game-to-game basis.

These days things have settled down considerably for the former Irish captain. Now it looks fairly clear that he does have a strong idea of what his own best team is and even of how it should play. The problem now, as it was when he took the job (and as it was indeed during McCarthy's playing days), is that he is a bit of a one-trick pony.

In his first few months in the job McCarthy tried to change the way the Irish team played by introducing wing backs. He learned fairly quickly that he didn't have the players for that system and, after getting his fingers burned, he reverted to 4-4-2. Since then his attempted innovations have included playing Roy Keane in central defence (another mistake) and, more regularly, toying with a 4-5-1 formation.

This latter tactic is one which McCarthy still falls back on from time to time. The sooner he learns that it does not work, the sooner he will take another step forward in terms of his coaching ability. He has a group of players suited to playing 4-4-2 and not very much else.

In our home games over the course of this campaign, McCarthy has gone with the two-man attack and the results have been generally positive. In the four group matches, we looked very good, taking all 12 points and scoring goals from different areas of the pitch, which is a good sign.

Even in the first leg against Turkey we were positive and created chances. We might not have deserved to win because of what happened during the closing 10 minutes, but we nevertheless showed again that Lansdowne Road is a difficult place to come to and get anything. Visiting teams travel to Dublin knowing that they are going to have to work very hard to get a draw and very few come here seriously expecting to do any better than that.

In contrast, our away form is miserable and it is here that McCarthy really does have to shoulder some of the blame. The team's performance in Belgrade - even when playing 4-5-1 - wasn't bad, but after that there was very little to reflect positively. The way the group panned out in terms of the political difficulties and postponed matches didn't make things any easier for McCarthy or his players, but I think he will still look back on the games in Croatia and Macedonia as missed opportunities.

In Zagreb, he gambled and gambled badly. From the moment he announced his team the players must have known they were in for a rough night. They would have been thinking when they heard that he was going with just one man up front that there were going to be problems. The fact that Tony Cascarino was the man in question can't have done too much for morale.

Cascarino was a great servant to the Irish cause, but to play as a lone striker at this level you primarily need to have pace and ability to hold the ball up under pressure from decent defenders. Tony has neither these days and the result on the night was that the Croatians were able to flood midfield with defenders not required at the back. As a result they repeatedly picked up possession and Ireland were forced deeper and deeper as the game went on.

Ireland simply doesn't have the sort of player that can play that role. Robbie Keane can't, Niall Quinn can't and Cascarino certainly can't. At a stretch you would say that Keith O'Neill is the closest thing we possess to somebody with the required attributes, but handing the job to him would obviously be a huge gamble.

In Skopje, McCarthy's substitutions seriously undermined his side's chances of maintaining a lead that would have put us through as group winners. Replacing Niall Quinn, Robbie Keane and Mark Kennedy had the effect of telling our players as well as the opposition's that that was it. We had shot our bolt, and through the closing stages it was going to be about hanging on for dear life. It was the wrong thing to do and McCarthy paid a hefty price for his error.

In fairness to him, however, it shouldn't be forgotten that McCarthy can only play the hand that he is dealt and there is little doubt that, with so many first division players involved in our squad, we are a little short of the quality you would need to genuinely thrive at this level.

Perhaps the type of player the Irish manager needed most of all over the past couple of months was a Mick McCarthy figure, somebody with the guts and determination to impose himself on the game at the back, somebody with enough bully in them to make sure that everyone around him did their bit, too. If the McCarthy of old had been playing in those two away games you get the feeling our chances of getting the required results would have multiplied.

Instead, McCarthy must lead much the same group of players into the next World Cup campaign and hope that, with a little bit of tinkering here and there, he can do a bit better than he has done this time. By and large his squad should be improved for he will lose no key players this time around, while some of the younger squad members will have a good deal more experience under their belts by the time we are playing the crucial qualification matches for Japan/Korea 2002.

In so far as he has a strong idea of his best team and, increasingly, their best formation, he has come a long way in the last four years. The fact that he undoubtedly has a group of players prepared to give their all for him out on the field counts for a great deal.

To change horses now would make little sense for the FAI. There are better teams and better managers out there, but with a little luck in December's draw and the experience he has picked up during his time in the job to date, McCarthy may finally manage to make the breakthrough he is looking for next time around.

In an interview with Emmet Malone