Litmus test of a brave new world

For both Waterford and Kilkenny, the stakes in tomorrow's Guinness All-Ireland hurling semi-final must have risen slightly in the aftermath of Clare's unconvincing performance against Offaly a week ago. Whereas whoever emerges from next Saturday's replay can hardly be taken lightly, the addition of an extra match to the All-Ireland champions' gruelling schedule will take an unwelcome toll even if they survive to the final.

Offaly's gutsy display did much to dispel the prevailing certainty that the All-Ireland is Clare's for the taking and, this weekend, all four semi-finalists can harbour reasonable (well, less unreasonable than a week ago) notions of lifting the trophy next month.

The second semi-final is a classic conundrum: feisty new team from breakthrough county against less convincing - but still there - side from a traditional power. In the brave new world of recent years, we've been tutored in the waning power of hurling's caste system but the sight of Kilkenny at this advanced stage of the championship still causes apprehension.

Paradoxically, that unease is intensified by Kilkenny's lack of persuasive credentials this season. Six months ago, the county was in crisis because of the announcement of DJ Carey's retirement. Even after this was retracted, talk of Dublin beating them at Parnell Park in May was still to be heard.

That match and the crushing defeat of Dublin restored a new sense of realism but Laois's game battle in the Leinster semi-final did nothing to advance the proposition that Kilkenny were improving as the summer wore on.

Despite winning a first Leinster title in five years against all expectations, Kilkenny found the triumph qualified by the awfulness of Offaly's challenge and the near meltdown suffered by the runners-up after the enforced resignation of Babs Keating in the aftermath of defeat.

One aspect of the current experimental championship format about which Kilkenny harbour mixed feelings is the manner in which Leinster and Munster champions have to cool their heels between winning the province and seeing further action.

The six-week break has allowed injuries to be sorted out but it has also meant a slight stagnation just as their opponents were getting instructive extra outings in the Munster replay and the All-Ireland quarter-final against Galway. Looking at the two sides, it is impossible not to believe more in Waterford and their more demanding rites-of-passage this summer. Allowing that Galway's display was as poor a championship performance as they have given in 14 years, Waterford have still played opposition of considerably higher quality than Kilkenny.

Welcome as it was, Offaly's rediscovery of form a week ago did not in any way retrospectively validate the eerie disinterest of the Leinster final. Consequently, Kilkenny have to step into a new world tomorrow.

Why, then, are there so many reservations about the outcome?

In truth, they do come down to the usual old voodoo about "Kilkenny getting better the longer they're there" and "you can never write off Kilkenny". Unfortunately for all those of the enlightenment, there is merit in the argument.

A year ago, Kilkenny followed a feeble Leinster final display with a coruscating second half against Galway in the All-Ireland quarterfinal which showcased DJ Carey's last major championship performance. Carey will be a key figure tomorrow. The graph of his performances is seldom progressive. In the middle of a poor spell or a poor match, he can suddenly do something decisive and that invariably haunts opponents.

Last year after he scored the goal which cut Clare's lead going into the last 10 minutes of the All-Ireland semi-final, Carey spooked Clare's supporters and - you suspect - a number of players. Frank Lohan wasn't amongst them and Clare survived but even the atmosphere within the ground was an indicator of the power of an outstanding player.

At present Charlie Carter is Kilkenny's outstanding forward and his tussle with Brian Flannery will be crucial. With two AN Others in the attack, Kilkenny have plenty of flexibility before the throw-in but a couple of points need making.

First, Carey is likely to be more productively deployed at full forward, where Sean Cullinane will find him a more daunting challenge than those he has met impressively so far. Second, the half forwards will need to compete for every ball. There's no point in living-and-let-live with the Waterford half backs in their current form.

This sector of the field will be very influential. Taken together with centrefield, it will dictate the winners. Tony Browne has been the best performer in the middle this season. His athleticism and pace have given Waterford a great platform in all matches except the Munster final replay. Beside him, Peter Queally has provided muscle and as a combination they look considerably superior to Philly Larkin and Peter Barry.

Larkin can hurl and move with Browne but not at the same pace. But the Kilkennyman can't be written out of the equation if he chances upon as good a day as he enjoyed in the Leinster final and if someone like Andy Comerford were played beside him, Kilkenny would have better prospects here.

Other questions occur. Can Ken McGrath prove the good spells against Galway were signs that his vast potential is awakening? Can Tom Hickey play Paul Flynn from the front for 70 minutes without mishap? Mightn't Anthony Kirwan, rather than Sean Daly, be best left on Pat O'Neill?

The belief here is that enough of the questions can be answered to Waterford's advantage for them to become this year's first All-Ireland finalists.